Accuracy scoring
Who's been right?
1053 polling firms and 11 editorial raters are graded against the same actual outcomes. Polling firms get scored on raw poll accuracy in the final 21 days; editorial forecasters get scored on Brier of their pre-election ratings. Both sit on this page so the comparison is one click apart.
Polling firms · sortable
SORT · MAE ASC · 1053 firms | Rank | Pollster | N polls | MAE | Bias | Weight | Tier | Transp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0ptimus | 13 | 0.8pt | +0.6pt | 4.00× | A+ | — |
| 2 | The Tarrance Group | 15 | 1.1pt | -1.1pt | 3.77× | A+ | — |
| 3 | Siena Research/NYT | 4 | 1.1pt | +1.1pt | 3.57× | A+ | — |
| 4 | OnMessage, Inc. * | 17 | 1.2pt | +0.2pt | 3.36× | A+ | — |
| 5 | Echelon Insights | 50 | 1.2pt | +1.0pt | 1.00× | A− | AAPOR |
| 6 | University of Georgia | 15 | 1.3pt | ±0 | 3.10× | A+ | — |
| 7 | Siena College/NYT | 4 | 1.6pt | -1.3pt | 2.52× | A+ | — |
| 8 | Muhlenberg College/Morning Call | 5 | 1.6pt | +0.4pt | 2.42× | A+ | — |
| 9 | AtlasIntel | 42 | 1.9pt | -0.3pt | 2.09× | A+ | — |
| 10 | BSP Research/Shaw & Co. | 4 | 2.1pt | -0.3pt | 1.93× | A+ | — |
| 11 | The Washington Post | 12 | 2.1pt | -2.1pt | 1.92× | A+ | AAPOR |
| 12 | Research & Polling Inc. * | 13 | 2.1pt | +0.7pt | 1.86× | A+ | — |
| 13 | Susquehanna Polling and Research | 5 | 2.3pt | +1.5pt | 1.73× | A+ | — |
| 14 | Echleon Insights | 3 | 2.4pt | +0.9pt | 1.68× | A+ | — |
| 15 | Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports | 4 | 2.4pt | -2.2pt | 1.68× | A+ | — |
| 16 | Insights West | 8 | 2.4pt | -1.1pt | 1.66× | A+ | — |
| 17 | KCTS 9/Washington Poll | 3 | 2.4pt | -2.3pt | 1.65× | A+ | — |
| 18 | East Carolina University | 38 | 2.5pt | -1.8pt | 1.63× | A+ | — |
| 19 | Tarrance Group | 13 | 2.5pt | -0.9pt | 1.61× | A+ | — |
| 20 | Marquette University | 88 | 2.5pt | +1.3pt | 1.00× | A− | AAPOR |
| 21 | WBUR/MassINC | 39 | 2.6pt | +1.5pt | 1.53× | A+ | — |
| 22 | EPIC MRA | 59 | 2.7pt | -0.8pt | 1.00× | A− | — |
| 23 | Suffolk University | 140 | 2.8pt | -0.1pt | 1.44× | A+ | AAPOR |
| 24 | St. Pete Polls | 25 | 2.8pt | -2.2pt | 1.44× | A+ | — |
| 25 | Data Orbital | 20 | 2.8pt | +0.2pt | 1.42× | A+ | — |
| 26 | Patriot Polling | 16 | 2.9pt | +1.4pt | 1.37× | A | — |
| 27 | Florida Atlantic University | 14 | 3.0pt | -2.4pt | 1.34× | A | — |
| 28 | Noble Predictive Insights | 41 | 3.0pt | -3.0pt | 1.00× | A− | — |
| 29 | Muhlenberg College | 20 | 3.0pt | -1.1pt | 1.33× | A | AAPOR |
| 30 | CNN/ORC | 20 | 3.1pt | -1.2pt | 1.27× | A | — |
| 31 | American Research Group | 19 | 3.2pt | -1.1pt | 1.00× | A− | — |
| 32 | Landmark Communications | 14 | 3.2pt | -2.4pt | 1.25× | A | — |
| 33 | Reuters/Ipsos | 7 | 3.3pt | -0.6pt | 1.21× | A | AAPOR |
| 34 | NBC/WSJ/Marist | 37 | 3.3pt | +0.7pt | 1.20× | A− | — |
| 35 | Angus Reid Public Opinion | 11 | 3.5pt | +2.2pt | 1.15× | A− | — |
| 36 | Strategies 360 | 8 | 3.5pt | -2.5pt | 1.13× | A− | — |
| 37 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 22 | 3.6pt | -0.1pt | 1.12× | A− | — |
| 38 | Emerson College | 435 | 3.6pt | -0.7pt | 1.00× | A− | AAPOR |
| 39 | Mitchell Research | 50 | 3.7pt | ±0 | 1.09× | A− | — |
| 40 | Trafalgar Group | 19 | 3.7pt | +2.1pt | 1.00× | A− | — |
| 41 | KAConsulting | 11 | 3.7pt | +3.6pt | 1.08× | A− | — |
| 42 | Cygnal | 121 | 3.8pt | -1.8pt | 1.04× | A− | — |
| 43 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 22 | 3.9pt | -3.9pt | 1.04× | A− | — |
| 44 | Quinnipiac University | 290 | 3.9pt | -1.9pt | 1.00× | A− | AAPOR |
| 45 | OH Predictive Insights | 65 | 3.9pt | +1.6pt | 1.01× | A− | — |
| 46 | ActiVote | 51 | 4.0pt | -3.9pt | 1.01× | A− | — |
| 47 | New York Times Upshot/Siena College | 9 | 4.0pt | -3.5pt | 1.01× | A− | — |
| 48 | Research Co. | 59 | 4.0pt | -1.5pt | 1.01× | A− | — |
| 49 | The Times-Picayune/Lucid | 12 | 4.0pt | -4.0pt | 1.01× | A− | — |
| 50 | Civiqs | 33 | 4.0pt | -2.5pt | 0.99× | B+ | — |
| 51 | New York Times/Siena College | 28 | 4.1pt | -4.1pt | 0.98× | B+ | — |
| 52 | Pharos Research | 13 | 4.1pt | -0.6pt | 0.97× | B+ | — |
| 53 | Missouri Scout/Remington | 14 | 4.1pt | -4.1pt | 0.97× | B+ | — |
| 54 | Marist College | 91 | 4.2pt | -2.4pt | 1.00× | A− | — |
| 55 | Vox Populi Polling | 31 | 4.2pt | -1.9pt | 0.96× | B+ | — |
| 56 | Magellan Strategies | 34 | 4.3pt | +0.3pt | 0.94× | B+ | — |
| 57 | UMass Lowell/YouGov | 11 | 4.3pt | -3.4pt | 0.93× | B+ | — |
| 58 | InsiderAdvantage | 64 | 4.3pt | +2.6pt | 0.92× | B+ | — |
| 59 | CBS News/YouGov | 42 | 4.3pt | -3.4pt | 0.92× | B+ | — |
| 60 | Public Policy Polling | 2158 | 4.4pt | -1.1pt | 1.00× | A− | AAPOR |
+ 993 more · sort changes the page · 60 shown