Accuracy scoring

Who's been right?

1769 polling firms are tracked; 1101 have a poll on a completed race and so carry an accuracy grade. Those firms are graded on the error of their final poll in each race we have an outcome for; 11 editorial forecasters get scored on Brier of their pre-election ratings. Both sit on this page so the comparison is one click apart.

POLLING FIRMS

1769

1101 accuracy-scored

EDITORIAL RATERS

2012 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

GRADED RACES

3527

historical w/ outcome

POLAGG RANK

of 11

Polling firms1769 Editorial raters11

Polling firms · sortable

SORT · MAE ASC · 158 ranked (≥5 scored polls) / 1769 tracked

Rank	Pollster	N polls	MAE	Bias (D/R)	Weight	Weight tier	Transp.
1	AtlasIntel	53	1.9pt	R+0.2pt	2.09×	T1	—
2	Marquette University	94	2.0pt	R+0.6pt	1.59×	T1	AAPOR
3	Research & Polling Inc.	34	2.1pt	R+0.7pt	1.86×	T1	—
4	EPIC-MRA	103	2.2pt	D+0.6pt	1.50×	T1	—
5	Muhlenberg College	20	2.4pt	D+0.5pt	1.51×	T1	AAPOR
6	YouGov/CBS News	12	2.5pt	R+1.4pt	1.00×	T3	—
7	Elway Research	29	2.5pt	D+1.6pt	1.83×	T1	—
8	Data Orbital	36	2.8pt	R+1.5pt	1.42×	T1	—
9	The Washington Post	16	3.0pt	D+1.8pt	2.08×	T1	AAPOR
10	Susquehanna Polling & Research	24	3.2pt	±0	1.26×	T2	—
11	CNN/ORC	20	3.4pt	D+2.2pt	1.27×	T2	AAPOR
12	HarrisX	67	3.5pt	D+0.2pt	0.83×	T4	—
13	High Point University	14	3.6pt	D+0.6pt	1.00×	T3	—
14	MassINC Polling Group	28	3.8pt	D+2.0pt	1.00×	T3	—
15	ActiVote	57	3.8pt	D+3.8pt	1.01×	T3	—
16	East Carolina University	38	3.8pt	D+2.9pt	1.63×	T1	—
17	Civiqs	79	3.8pt	D+2.6pt	0.99×	T4	—
18	Patriot Polling	26	3.9pt	R+3.0pt	1.37×	T2	—
19	Research Co.	89	4.0pt	D+1.4pt	1.01×	T3	—
20	New York Times/Siena College	29	4.1pt	D+3.9pt	0.98×	T4	—
21	Tarrance Group	41	4.1pt	R+2.6pt	1.54×	T1	—
22	Cygnal	179	4.1pt	D+1.4pt	1.03×	T3	—
23	Emerson College	684	4.1pt	D+0.9pt	1.11×	T3	AAPOR
24	Strategies 360	14	4.2pt	D+1.4pt	1.13×	T3	—
25	OH Predictive Insights	65	4.2pt	R+1.9pt	1.01×	T3	—
26	Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)	12	4.2pt	D+3.2pt	1.00×	T3	AAPOR
27	CNN/SSRS	40	4.3pt	D+3.2pt	0.80×	T4	AAPOR
28	UMass Lowell/YouGov	12	4.3pt	D+3.4pt	0.93×	T4	—
29	McLaughlin & Associates	72	4.3pt	R+1.3pt	0.77×	T5	—
30	SurveyMonkey/Axios	32	4.4pt	D+3.0pt	1.00×	T3	AAPOR
31	Vox Populi Polling	52	4.4pt	D+2.5pt	0.96×	T4	—
32	Expedition Strategies	9	4.4pt	D+4.4pt	1.00×	T3	—
33	KAConsulting	16	4.4pt	R+0.9pt	1.08×	T3	—
34	NBC/WSJ/Marist	37	4.4pt	D+1.4pt	1.20×	T3	—
35	Big Data Poll	18	4.5pt	R+4.5pt	0.59×	T6	—
36	OnMessage Inc.	39	4.5pt	R+3.0pt	3.36×	T1	—
37	University of North Florida	38	4.5pt	D+3.5pt	0.83×	T4	—
38	Saint Anselm College	72	4.5pt	R+2.0pt	0.81×	T4	—
39	Elway Poll	18	4.6pt	D+2.5pt	0.75×	T5	—
40	Marist College	229	4.6pt	D+1.9pt	0.92×	T4	—
41	Pharos Research	13	4.6pt	D+0.7pt	0.97×	T4	—
42	Bloomberg/Selzer	5	4.6pt	D+3.7pt	1.00×	T3	—
43	InsiderAdvantage	193	4.6pt	R+1.7pt	0.91×	T4	—
44	Reuters/Ipsos	15	4.7pt	R+1.0pt	1.21×	T2	AAPOR
45	CBS News/YouGov	42	4.7pt	D+3.7pt	0.92×	T4	—
46	Wick Insights	18	4.7pt	R+3.8pt	0.69×	T5	—
47	Siena College	188	4.7pt	D+1.2pt	0.85×	T4	AAPOR
48	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	38	4.7pt	R+1.9pt	1.00×	T3	—
49	Spry Strategies	10	4.7pt	D+3.9pt	1.00×	T3	—
50	WMUR/UNH	44	4.7pt	D+4.4pt	0.78×	T5	—
51	Suffolk University	255	4.8pt	D+1.5pt	1.05×	T3	AAPOR
52	CNN/SRSS	7	4.8pt	D+4.8pt	1.00×	T3	AAPOR
53	American Research Group	241	4.8pt	D+1.5pt	1.51×	T1	—
54	Fleming & Associates	27	4.8pt	R+4.2pt	0.73×	T5	—
55	Franklin & Marshall College	43	4.8pt	D+4.8pt	0.83×	T4	—
56	MassINC	33	4.8pt	R+2.9pt	0.87×	T4	—
57	CNN/Time/Opinion Research	9	4.8pt	R+1.6pt	0.60×	T5	AAPOR
58	Pan Atlantic Research	46	4.9pt	D+2.4pt	1.00×	T3	—
59	Public Policy Polling (report)	48	4.9pt	±0	1.37×	T2	AAPOR
60	Glengariff Group	92	5.0pt	D+4.6pt	0.81×	T4	—

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