The courts · /courts
The Supreme Court, read like a race.
Every pending case carries three signals — the question presented, where prediction markets price the outcome, and how the public feels about the likely ruling — set against the court’s own approval. Nonpartisan. We report; we don’t advise.
58argued this term54decided4awaiting decision41market contractsJun 30term ends2025–26 TERM · UPDATED 9m AGO
1 · How the public sees the court
Full approval trend + crosstabs →Job approval · all adults
42%
52% disapprove · near a 25-yr low
2001 · 62%NOW · 42%
Approval by party · a record 64-point gap
Republicans75%
Independents40%
Democrats11%
The 11% Democratic approval is the lowest Gallup has measured for any party group in the court’s 25-year trend.
Public read on the court
Too conservative43%
About right41%
Too liberal14%
Reform — broadly popular
18-yr term limits69%
Binding ethics code78%
Trust in the judiciary49%
Gallup · Jun 2026 · n=1,402 · ±3pp · TREND: GALLUP SCOTUS JOB APPROVAL, 2001–2026
2 · Live docket · awaiting decision
Predicted vote · est. from oral argument + modelFour rulings the term is still holding.
| Case · issue | Question presented | Predicted vote | Market | Public on outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump v. Barbara Executive powerNo. 24-1287 | Does the 14th Amendment’s Citizenship Clause permit an executive order denying birthright citizenship to children of unlawfully-pr… | 7–2 strike (est.) | 18¢-3¢ 7d POLY · outcome | 31% FAVOR64% OPPOSE |
| Trump v. Cook Executive powerNo. 25-A301 | May the President remove a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board other than “for cause,” and does the alleged mortgage misstatemen… | 5–4 Cook stays (est.) | 38¢+4¢ 7d KAL · outcome | 36% FAVOR55% OPPOSE |
| West Virginia v. B.P.J. Civil rightsNo. 24-43 | Do state laws limiting school sports teams to students of the corresponding biological sex violate Title IX or the Equal Protectio… | 6–3 uphold (est.) | 71¢+2¢ 7d POLY · outcome | 48% FAVOR46% OPPOSE |
| NRSC v. FEC 1st AmendmentNo. 24-621 | Do federal limits on party spending coordinated with a candidate violate the First Amendment? | 6–3 strike (est.) | 64¢+5¢ 7d POLY · outcome | 39% FAVOR50% OPPOSE |
| Mullin v. Al Otro Lado ImmigrationNo. 24-309 | Have asylum seekers turned back at a port of entry “arrived in the United States” under the Immigration and Nationality Act? | 6–3 for gov’t (est.) | 73¢+1¢ 7d KAL · outcome | 44% FAVOR47% OPPOSE |
CONSERVATIVE — MAJORITYLIBERAL — MAJORITYIN DISSENTTOO CLOSESEATS ORDERED LIBERAL → CONSERVATIVE · CLICK A ROW FOR THE CASE PAGE
3 · Recent decisions
How the term’s biggest questions came down.
Each ruling with its vote split, the opinion’s author, who joined and who dissented, public reaction, and whether the markets had it priced. Sorted newest first.
6–3
Jun 29, 2026
Trump v. SlaughterExecutive power
Presidents may remove members of independent agencies at will, narrowing Humphrey’s Executor (1935).
WHY IT MATTERS · Removes a 91-year limit on presidential control of independent commissions (FTC, FCC, NLRB).
OPINION OF THE COURT
Kavanaugh
PUBLIC ON THE RULING
41% FAVOR54% OPPOSE
MARKET CALLED IT · CLOSED 79¢
5–4
Jun 29, 2026
Watson v. RNCElections
States may count mail ballots postmarked by Election Day and received up to five days later.
WHY IT MATTERS · A loss for the RNC; preserves mail-ballot receipt windows in 18 states before the midterms.
OPINION OF THE COURT
Barrett
PUBLIC ON THE RULING
58% FAVOR38% OPPOSE
MARKET MISSED · CLOSED 46¢
6–3
Jun 8, 2026
Louisiana v. CallaisElections
Sharply raises the bar for proving vote dilution under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
WHY IT MATTERS · Triggered mid-decade redistricting across the South; likely net GOP House seats in November.
OPINION OF THE COURT
Roberts
PUBLIC ON THE RULING
34% FAVOR58% OPPOSE
MARKET CALLED IT · CLOSED 71¢
7–2
Feb 20, 2026
Learning Resources v. TrumpExecutive power
IEEPA does not authorize the President’s across-the-board tariffs.
WHY IT MATTERS · Struck the hallmark of the administration’s economic agenda; the term’s biggest loss for the President.
OPINION OF THE COURT
Gorsuch
PUBLIC ON THE RULING
66% FAVOR33% OPPOSE
MARKET CALLED IT · CLOSED 58¢
6–3
Jun 18, 2026
United States v. Hemani2nd Amendment
Prosecuting a regular drug user for gun possession is inconsistent with the Second Amendment’s text and history.
WHY IT MATTERS · Loosens a federal firearms ban applied in hundreds of prosecutions a year.
OPINION OF THE COURT
Thomas
PUBLIC ON THE RULING
43% FAVOR49% OPPOSE
MARKET CALLED IT · CLOSED 55¢
4 · Markets on the court
All prediction markets →Where bettors price the bench.
Case-outcome contracts joined to our docket, plus the meta-markets that move when a justice’s plans leak. Informational only — not financial advice.
Case outcomes · ¢ that YES happens
POLYSCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?$945k-1¢1¢POLYSCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?$11k+5¢40¢POLYWill Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?$5k0¢72¢POLYWill Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?$2k-14¢42¢Vacancies & confirmations · thin, watch-only
POLYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?$571k¢6¢POLYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?$518k-2¢34¢POLYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$386k¢18¢KALWill Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?$45k0¢4¢KALWill Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?$37k0¢8¢KALWill Gregory G. Katsas become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?$27k0¢1¢⚠ RETIREMENT MARKETS ARE THIN AND RUMOR-DRIVEN — A SINGLE TRADE MOVES THEM. WE FLAG THEM, WE DON’T FORECAST FROM THEM.
5 · The bench
Six to three, by appointment — and how the public rates each seat.
Justices placed by estimated ideal point (an illustrative Martin-Quinn-style score). The axis is ideological, not partisan — but the current majority’s six members were all appointed by Republican presidents.
← LIBERAL
CONSERVATIVE →
MEDIAN
Sotomayor
Obama ’09
Jackson
Biden ’22
Kagan
Obama ’10
C
Roberts
Bush ’05
Kavanaugh
Trump ’18
Barrett
Trump ’20
Gorsuch
Trump ’17
Alito
Bush ’06
Thomas
Bush ’91
Net favorability · public
Tap a name for their profile+11Kagan · Obama ’10
+8Jackson · Biden ’22
+7Gorsuch · Trump ’17
-4Alito · Bush ’06
-7Kavanaugh · Trump ’18
-8Barrett · Trump ’20
-9Thomas · Bush ’91
-9Roberts · Bush ’05
-10
6 · Already granted · next term
Executive powerGranted
Reilly v. SEC
Whether SEC in-house administrative-law judges exercise unconstitutional executive power.
Argument: Fall 2026
Executive powerGranted
Texas v. EPA
Scope of EPA authority to set interstate ozone transport rules after Loper Bright.
Argument: Oct 2026
ElectionsGranted
Davis v. Board of Elections
Whether a state may require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.
Cert granted · Jun 2026
Related coverage
SCOTUSblog · 2h
The four opinions still outstanding as the term hits its final day.
NYT · 5h
Inside the birthright-citizenship argument: where each justice tipped their hand.
Reuters · 1d
Slaughter ruling hands the President at-will control of independent agencies.
AP · 1d
After Callais, three Southern states move to redraw congressional maps.
The courts
The Supreme Court, read like a race.
Question · market · public — for every pending case. Nonpartisan.
Job approval
42%
2001 · 62% → NOW · 42%
Republicans
75%
Independents
40%
Democrats
11%
RECORD 64-PT PARTY GAP · 43% SAY “TOO CONSERVATIVE”
Awaiting decision
Still on the term’s desk.
Executive powerAwaiting decision
Trump v. Barbara
Does the 14th Amendment’s Citizenship Clause permit an executive order denying birthright citizenship to children of u…
7–2 strike (est.)
POLY · OUTCOME18¢
31% FAVOR64% OPPOSE
Executive powerAwaiting decision
Trump v. Cook
May the President remove a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board other than “for cause,” and does the alleged mortgage…
5–4 Cook stays (est.)
KAL · OUTCOME38¢
36% FAVOR55% OPPOSE
Civil rightsAwaiting decision
West Virginia v. B.P.J.
Do state laws limiting school sports teams to students of the corresponding biological sex violate Title IX or the Equ…
6–3 uphold (est.)
POLY · OUTCOME71¢
48% FAVOR46% OPPOSE
1st AmendmentAwaiting decision
NRSC v. FEC
Do federal limits on party spending coordinated with a candidate violate the First Amendment?
6–3 strike (est.)
POLY · OUTCOME64¢
39% FAVOR50% OPPOSE
ImmigrationAwaiting decision
Mullin v. Al Otro Lado
Have asylum seekers turned back at a port of entry “arrived in the United States” under the Immigration and Nationalit…
6–3 for gov’t (est.)
KAL · OUTCOME73¢
44% FAVOR47% OPPOSE
Recent decisions
6–3Trump v. Slaughter
Presidents may remove members of independent agencies at will, narrowing Humphrey’s Executor (1935).
Kavanaugh
41% FAVOR54% OPPOSE
5–4Watson v. RNC
States may count mail ballots postmarked by Election Day and received up to five days later.
Barrett
58% FAVOR38% OPPOSE
6–3Louisiana v. Callais
Sharply raises the bar for proving vote dilution under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
Roberts
34% FAVOR58% OPPOSE
7–2Learning Resources v. Trump
IEEPA does not authorize the President’s across-the-board tariffs.
Gorsuch
66% FAVOR33% OPPOSE
6–3United States v. Hemani
Prosecuting a regular drug user for gun possession is inconsistent with the Second Amendment’s text and history.
Thomas
43% FAVOR49% OPPOSE
The bench · favorability
Related coverage
SCOTUSblog · 2h
The four opinions still outstanding as the term hits its final day.
NYT · 5h
Inside the birthright-citizenship argument: where each justice tipped their hand.
Reuters · 1d
Slaughter ruling hands the President at-will control of independent agencies.
AP · 1d
After Callais, three Southern states move to redraw congressional maps.