Awaiting decision1st AmendmentNo. 24-621
NRSC v. FEC
Argued Dec 8, 2025Lower 6th Cir. (en banc)
Question presented
Do federal limits on party spending coordinated with a candidate violate the First Amendment?
Predicted vote · estimated
6–3 strike (est.).
Estimated from how each justice engaged at oral argument and our case model. These are projections — not leaks, and the Court routinely confounds them.
JA
Jackson
Uphold
SO
Sotomayor
Uphold
KA
Kagan
Uphold
C
Roberts
Strike
KA
Kavanaugh
Strike
BA
Barrett
~ Lean strike
GO
Gorsuch
Strike
AL
Alito
Strike
TH
Thomas
Strike
Awaiting decision1st Amendment
NRSC v. FEC
NO. 24-621 · ARGUED Dec 8, 2025
MARKET · UPHELD
64¢+5¢ 7d
PREDICTED
6–3 strike (est.)
39% FAVOR50% OPPOSE
Question presented
Do federal limits on party spending coordinated with a candidate violate the First Amendment?