NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new·Methodology·Send feedback
Courts / 2025–26 term / NRSC v. FEC
Awaiting decision1st AmendmentNo. 24-621

NRSC v. FEC

Argued Dec 8, 2025Lower 6th Cir. (en banc)
Question presented

Do federal limits on party spending coordinated with a candidate violate the First Amendment?

Predicted vote · estimated

6–3 strike (est.).

Estimated from how each justice engaged at oral argument and our case model. These are projections — not leaks, and the Court routinely confounds them.

JA
Jackson
Uphold
SO
Sotomayor
Uphold
KA
Kagan
Uphold
C
Roberts
Strike
KA
Kavanaugh
Strike
BA
Barrett
~ Lean strike
GO
Gorsuch
Strike
AL
Alito
Strike
TH
Thomas
Strike
Awaiting decision1st Amendment

NRSC v. FEC

NO. 24-621 · ARGUED Dec 8, 2025
MARKET · UPHELD
64¢+5¢ 7d
PREDICTED
6–3 strike (est.)
39% FAVOR50% OPPOSE
Question presented

Do federal limits on party spending coordinated with a candidate violate the First Amendment?