Ohio governor shifts to tossup as Senate special hardens to lean-Republican.

The aggregator moved Ohio's governor race from tilt-Democratic to tossup in today's update, narrowing the polling average margin from D+1.50 points to D+0.29 points. The most recent survey, a Siena College poll conducted through July 1, found Amy Acton (D) and Vivek Ramaswamy (R) tied at 47% each (n=601, ±5.0pp).^[1] An AARP poll through June 25 gave Acton a three-point edge at 47%–44% (n=800, ±3.5pp).^[2] Prediction markets currently place Republican implied probability at 51.5¢ (Polymarket) and 54¢ (Kalshi) for the governor race.

Ohio's Senate special election — pairing former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) against Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) — moved from tilt-Republican to lean-Republican in the same update cycle. The most recent Siena College poll (through July 1) shows Husted leading Brown 50%–47% (n=601, ±5.0pp).^[1] An AARP survey through June 25 had Brown ahead 48%–45% (n=800, ±3.5pp).^[2] A Fox News poll from early June found Brown leading 53%–45% (n=1,015, ±3.0pp).^[3] Fox News identified the Ohio Senate contest as one of 12 races central to determining Senate majority control.^[4] A Reuters report noted that a Supreme Court ruling could erode Democrats' traditional fundraising advantage in Senate battlegrounds including Ohio.^[5]