Races · Governor · 2026 · Georgia
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Keisha Lance Bottoms vs Republican
Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet
2 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary May 19, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedKeisha Lance Bottoms (D) is running for governor of Georgia against Republican contenders Rick Jackson and Burt Jones, with the election set for November 3, 2026. The race is rated likely Democratic, with a source-derived margin of 12.5 points. The most recent poll, from Concord Public Opinion Partners (fielded June 2, 2026), showed Bottoms leading Jackson 53%–38% and Jones 52%–42% [1]. In prediction markets, Polymarket implies a 54% chance for the Democrat [5], while Kalshi prices Jackson at 51% and Bottoms at 50% [6].
CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
76
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement55
11.0pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution55 / 100
Measured11.0pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion42
4.2pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution42 / 100
Measured4.2pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity50
4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution50 / 100
Measured4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +4.0
80% CI: R +15.0 → D +7.0 · win prob 32%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 8 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +4.1
80% CI R +9.9 → D +2.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +6.8
80% CI D +5.2 → D +8.4
CV MAE 1.25
consensusMarket-implied
R +0.2
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
3 polls · through Jun 27, 2026 · latest Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
Keisha Lance Bottoms
VoteHub52.3%
VoteHub
Polling average52.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg51.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average51.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.8 pt above our average
Rick Jackson
VoteHub42.5%
VoteHub
Polling average42.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Burt Jones
VoteHub42.0%
VoteHub
Polling average42.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 3 polls (through Jun 27, 2026): Keisha Lance Bottoms 52.3%, Rick Jackson 42.5%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 8 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30 | Fox NewsFor · Fox News | 1,002 · RV | D-LEAN | D +2.121 tracked | +2.7d lean | 52 · 47 |
| Jun 26 | Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research+1For · Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,002 · RV | R-LEAN | — | +5.2d lean | 52 · 47 |
| Jun 1 | Concord Public Opinion PartnersFor · Internal D-aligned | 510 · LV | D-LEAN | — | — | 53 · 38 |
| Jun 1 | Concord Public Opinion PartnersFor · Internal D-aligned | 510 · LV | D-LEAN | — | — | 52 · 42 |
| Apr 20 | Echelon Insights+1 | 407 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 49 · 43 |
| Apr 20 | Echelon Insights+1 | 407 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 49 · 43 |
| Apr 8 | Echelon Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 407 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 49 · 43 |
| Apr 8 | Echelon Insights+1 | 407 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 49 · 43 |
Endorsements · 44 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet44
Endorsements tracked
Keisha Lance Bottoms44 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total44
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DKeisha Lance Bottoms44 endorsers
Most notable · Joe Biden · former president of the United States (2021–2025)
Elected officials30
Federal 5State 23Local 2
Elected officials · 30
- Joe Biden · former president of the United States (2021–2025)
- Harold V. Jones II · minority leader of the Georgia Senate (2025–present) from SD-22 (2015–present)
- Gavin Newsom · governor of California (2019–present)
- Roy Barnes · former governor of Georgia (1999–2003)
- Donzella James · state senator from the 35th district (1994–2002, 2009–present)
- Elena Parent · state senator from the 42nd district (2015–present)
- Freddie Powell Sims · state senator from the 12th district (2009–present)
- Jason Carter · former state senator from the 42nd district (2010–2015)
- Kim Jackson · state senator from the 41st district (2021-present)
- Nan Orrock · state senator from the 36th district (2007–present)
- RaShaun Kemp · state senator from the 38th district (2025–present)
- Sally Harrell · state senator from the 40th district (2019-present)
- Sally Yates · former U.S. deputy attorney general (2015–2017)
- Doug Shipman · former president of the Atlanta City Council (2022–2026)
- James Woodall · former president of the Georgia NAACP (2019–2021)
- Andrew Young · former mayor of Atlanta (1982–1990)
- Bryce Berry · state representative from the 56th district (2025–present)
- Burrell Ellis · former DeKalb County CEO (2009–2017)
- Jason Esteves · former SD-35 (2023–2025) and former gubernatorial candidate
- Jon Ossoff · Georgia (2021–present)
- Karen Lupton · state representative from the 83rd district (2023–present)
- Long Tran · state representative from the 80th district (2023–present)
- Michelle Au · state representative from the 50th district (2023–present)
- Nadine Thomas · former SD-10 (1993–2005)
- Pat Gardner · state representative from the 57th district (2001–2021)
- Phil Olaleye · state representative from the 59th district (2023–present)
- Raphael Warnock · Georgia (2021–present)
- Saira Draper · state representative from the 90th district (2023–present)
- Scott Holcomb · state representative from the 101st district (2011–present)
- Shea Roberts · state representative from the 52nd district (2021–present)
Other7
Other · 7
- AFSCME · Local 1644
- End Citizens United
- Georgia Equality
- IBEW · Local 613
- Latino Victory Fund
- Ted Terry · DeKalb County commissioner from the 6th district (2021–present)
- UNITE HERE · Local 23
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- American Federation of Government Employees
- EMILYs List
- Georgia Conservation Voters
- SEIU · Workers United Southern Region
- Southern Regional Council of Carpenters
- Teamsters · Local 528
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Killer Mike · rapper
RRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Burt Jones
Receipts
$4.3M
Disburse
$18.4M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup4
Tossup · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
121 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles121
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.12
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.11 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.12
Week-over-weekshift −0.11 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 84%
R 2%
16% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral84%
R-leaning outlets2%
16% of outlets classified by editorial lean
F
Poll shows Georgia Democrats ahead in senate, gubernatorial races
A
Rick Jackson wins Republican nomination for Georgia governor, delivers victory speech
S
Keisha Lance Bottoms Edges Past Republican Nominee Rick Jackson in Historic Georgia Governor’s Race
M
Jackson easily turns back Trump-endorsed Jones in Georgia gubernatorial runoff
T
Georgia Gubernatorial Candidate Rick Jackson Slammed After Being Challenged for a Debate: 'GOP are all snowflakes'
B
Q+A with Chris Carr, Republican candidate for Georgia governor
N
Who Is Ahead in the Georgia Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
W
By the numbers: How $108 million helped Rick Jackson win Georgia's GOP primary for governor
W
Fox News: Keisha Lance Bottoms edges Rick Jackson in Georgia governor poll
S
Fox News releases new Georgia governor poll. Who is winning the race?
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified8 / 8deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements117 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks