Races · Governor · 2026 · Florida
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Republican
Likely matchup — neither nominee is settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
Neither party has chosen a nominee yet
2 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →3 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary August 18, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedByron Donalds (R) and David Jolly (D) are competing for Florida governor in the November 3, 2026, election. The race is rated lean-R, with a source-derived margin of 3.4 points toward Republicans. The most recent survey, from Change Research (field end May 16, 2026), shows Jolly leading Donalds 46% to 42% [1]. Despite that poll, prediction markets favor the Republican: Polymarket implies an 80% chance of a GOP win [6], while Kalshi puts the Republican Party at 78% and the Democratic Party at 22% [7].
CITATIONS · lean-r · high-tipping · trending-d · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
79
High uncertainty
Main driver: high poll dispersion (5.9pp std-dev).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement78
15.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution78 / 100
Measured15.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion59
5.9pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution59 / 100
Measured5.9pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity25
6 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution25 / 100
Measured6 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +20.6
80% CI: R +31.6 → R +9.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 42 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +7.8
80% CI R +8.3 → D +0.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +5.0
80% CI R +6.5 → R +3.6
CV MAE 1.15
consensusMarket-implied
R +7.9
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 20¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 22 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 20% · polls 41%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
12 polls · through May 16, 2026 · latest Change Research
Byron Donalds
VoteHub44.7%
VoteHub
Polling average44.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
James Fishback
VoteHub43.0%
VoteHub
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
David Jolly
VoteHub41.3%
VoteHub
Polling average41.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Jerry Demings
VoteHub40.7%
VoteHub
Polling average40.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 12 polls (through May 16, 2026): Byron Donalds 44.7%, James Fishback 43.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 42 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 26 | Change Research+1For · Change Research | 1,593 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 46 · 42 |
| May 15, 26 | Change Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 1,593 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 46 · 42 |
| May 14, 26 | Cherry CommunicationsFor · Florida Chamber of Commerce | 604 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +3.83 tracked | +9.7decoupled | 39 · 47 |
| May 14, 26 | Cherry CommunicationsFor · Florida Chamber of Commerce | 604 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +3.83 tracked | +9.7decoupled | 39 · 48 |
| May 8, 26 | Cherry Communications+1For · Internal R-aligned | 604 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +3.83 tracked | +9.7decoupled | 39 · 48 |
| May 8, 26 | Cherry Communications+1For · Internal R-aligned | 604 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +3.83 tracked | +9.7decoupled | 39 · 47 |
| Apr 23, 26 | Stetson University+1For · Stetson Today | 848 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +15.9decoupled | 40 · 47 |
| Apr 23, 26 | Stetson University+1For · Stetson Today | 848 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +15.9decoupled | 42 · 46 |
| Apr 20, 26 | Echelon Insights+1 | 406 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 43 · 49 |
| Apr 20, 26 | Echelon Insights+1 | 406 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 44 · 48 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —David Jolly
Receipts
$2.8M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
103 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles103
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.05 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift +0.05 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 6%
Neutral 94%
6% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets6%
Neutral94%
R-leaning outlets0%
6% of outlets classified by editorial lean
F
Sen. Jason Brodeur endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
T
DeSantis allies break away, endorse Byron Donalds for Florida governor
W
Absent frontrunner Byron Donalds dominates Florida GOP governor debate he skipped
P
A Jolly campaign in Florida amid an angry Democratic summer
C
Republican gubernatorial candidates clash during online debate as Donalds skips event
L
Republican candidates take aim at each other in Florida governor’s debate
T
If Florida’s GOP debate for governor has no Byron Donalds, does it count?
M
Byron Donalds’ front-runner wall grows with Blaise Ingoglia endorsement
M
A pro-AI group spent $500K on ads for Byron Donalds using controversial media firm
M
Airbnb gives $1 million to Byron Donalds as rentals remain a Suncoast flashpoint
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified36 / 42deterministic
Polls flagged2needs review
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements173 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks