Republican primary · August 18, 2026
Florida Governor Republican primary
Field of 3 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
31
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (15.1pp).
Forecast CI width50
15.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution50 / 100
Measured15.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity13
7 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution13 / 100
Measured7 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 6 polls + fundamentals1Byron DonaldsByron Donalds ( Republican Party ) is a member of the U.S. House , representing Florida's 19th Congressional District . He assumed office on…
2James FishbackJames Fishback ( Republican Party ) is running for election for Governor of Florida . He declared candidacy for the Republican primary sched…
3Jay Collins
4Paul Renner
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 49 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Donalds | Fishback | DeSantis | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | The Public Sentiment Institute | 680 · LV | 32 | 32 | — | +0 |
| Jun 10, 26 | Associated Industries of Fla. | 386 · LV | 54 | 8 | — | +46 |
| Jun 8, 26 | The Public Sentiment Institute | 729 · LV | 42 | 39 | — | +3 |
| May 16, 26 | Change Research | 733 · LV | 48 | 9 | — | +39 |
| May 15, 26 | Change Research | — · unknown | 48 | 9 | — | +39 |
| May 13, 26 | Public Sentiment Institute | 750 · LV | 46 | 35 | — | +11 |
| May 13, 26 | The Public Sentiment Institute | 750 · LV | 46 | 35 | — | +11 |
| Apr 29, 26 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 420 · LV | 54 | 9 | — | +45 |
| Apr 23, 26 | Stetson University | 373 · LV | 38 | 5 | — | +33 |
| Apr 12, 26 | Stetson University | 373 · LV | 38 | 5 | — | +33 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 97 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetByron Donalds · 88James Fishback · 9
RByron Donalds88 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials58
Federal 32State 8Local 10
Elected officials · 58
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Tyler Sirois · majority leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2024–present) from HD-31 (2018–present)
- Christian Ziegler · former chair of the Florida Republican Party (2023–2024)
- Daniel Perez · speaker of the Florida House of Representatives (2025–present) from HD-116 (2018–present)
- David Sacks · co-chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2025–present)
- Lara Trump · former co-chair of the Republican National Committee (2024–2025)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Jeff Landry · governor of Louisiana (2024–present) and special envoy to Greenland (2025–present)
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders · governor of Arkansas (2023–present)
- James Uthmeier · Attorney General of Florida (2025–present)
- Jacob Helberg · under secretary of state for economic growth, energy and the environment (2025–present)
- Scott Bessent · secretary of the treasury (2025–present)
- Aaron Bean · FL-04 (2023–present)
- Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
- Brian Mast · FL-21 (2017–present)
- Chip Roy · TX-21 (2019–present)
- Cory Mills · FL-07 (2023–present)
- Daniel Webster · FL-11 (2011–present)
- Elise Stefanik · NY-21 (2015–present)
- Gus Bilirakis · FL-12 (2007–present)
- Jimmy Patronis · FL-01 (2025–present)
- John Rutherford · FL-05 (2017–present)
- Kat Cammack · FL-03 (2021–present)
- Laurel Lee · FL-15 (2023–present)
- Lisa McClain · MI-09 (2021–present)
- Mario Díaz-Balart · FL-26 (2003–present)
- María Elvira Salazar · FL-27 (2021–present)
- Mike Haridopolos · FL-08 (2025–present)
- Neal Dunn · FL-02 (2017–present)
- Randy Fine · FL-06 (2025–present)
- Russell Fry · SC-07 (2023–present)
- Scott Franklin · FL-18 (2021–present)
- Vern Buchanan · FL-16 (2007–present)
- Elon Musk · former senior advisor to the president (2025) (Independent)
- Blaise Ingoglia · Chief Financial Officer of Florida (2025–present)
- Bob Gualtieri · sheriff of Pinellas County (2011–present)
- Chad Chronister · sheriff of Hillsborough County (2017–present)
- Christi Fraga · mayor of Doral (2022–present)
- D. C. Reeves · mayor of Pensacola (2022–present)
- Dennis Lemma · sheriff of Seminole County (2017–present)
- Doug Burgum · secretary of the interior (2025–present)
- Grady Judd · sheriff of Polk County (2005–present)
- Jeff Miller · former FL-01 (2001–2017)
- Jim Boyd · president-designate of the Florida Senate from the 20th district (2020–present)
- John C. Phelan · secretary of the navy (2025–2026)
- Rick Scott · Florida (2019–present)
- Rosie Cordero-Stutz · sheriff of Miami-Dade County (2025–present)
- Sam Garrison · speaker-designate of the Florida House of Representatives from the 11th district (2020–present)
- Spencer Roach · former HD-76 (2018–2024)
- T. K. Waters · sheriff of Duval County (2022–present)
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present)
- Vicki Lopez · Miami-Dade county commissioner from the 5th district (2025–present)
- Wilton Simpson · Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2023–present)
- Wyman Duggan · speaker pro tempore of the Florida House of Representatives (2024–present) from HD-12 (2018–present)
- state representatives · entatives
- state senators · rs
Celebrity19
Celebrity · 19
- Donald Trump Jr. · businessman and son of President Donald Trump
- Adam Kidan · president of Empire Workforce
- Ben Horowitz · co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz
- Benny Johnson · political commentator
- Bill Conerly · politician
- Brian D. Ballard · founder of Ballard Partners
- Carlos Beruff · real estate developer
- Charlie Kirk · co-founder of Turning Point USA (deceased)
- Dan Bongino · former deputy director of the FBI (2025–2026)
- David Steward · founder of World Wide Technology
- Erika Donalds · school choice activist (candidate's spouse)
- George Zoley · CEO of GEO Group
- Harry Sargeant III · oil executive
- Jay Kemmerer · owner of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort
- Marc Andreessen · co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz
- Omeed Malik · banker
- Phil Mickelson · professional golfer
- Ross Perot Jr. · real estate developer
- Zach Witkoff · businessman
Other6
Other · 6
- Dan Newlin · nominee to be ambassador to Colombia
- Joe Gebbia · chief design officer (2025–present)
- Kelly Loeffler · administrator of the Small Business Administration (2025–present)
- Peter Lamelas · ambassador to Argentina (2025–present)
- Stacey Feinberg · ambassador to Luxembourg (2025–present)
- Steve Witkoff · special envoy to the Middle East (2025–present) and special envoy for peace missions (2025–present)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- Americans for Prosperity
- Andrew Puzder · ambassador to the European Union (2025–present)
- Club for Growth · PAC
- Gun Owners of America
- Turning Point Action
RJames Fishback9 endorsers
Most notable · Andrew Tate · internet personality
Celebrity5
Celebrity · 5
- Andrew Tate · internet personality
- Asmongold · online streamer and political commentator
- Nick Fuentes · far-right political activist
- Sneako · political commentator
- Tucker Carlson · conservative political commentator
Elected officials3
Federal 0State 0Local 2
Elected officials · 3
- Anthony Sabatini · former member of the Florida House of Representatives (2018-2022), and Lake County commissioner (2024-present)
- Carrie Prejean · former member of the Religious Liberty Commission (2025-2026)
- Florida Board of Education · f the Florida Board of Education (2024-present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- MAHA Institute
RCasey DeSantis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Republican primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
103 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles103
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.05 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift +0.05 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 6%
Neutral 94%
6% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets6%
Neutral94%
R-leaning outlets0%
6% of outlets classified by editorial lean
F
Sen. Jason Brodeur endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
T
DeSantis allies break away, endorse Byron Donalds for Florida governor
W
Absent frontrunner Byron Donalds dominates Florida GOP governor debate he skipped
P
A Jolly campaign in Florida amid an angry Democratic summer
C
Republican gubernatorial candidates clash during online debate as Donalds skips event
L
Republican candidates take aim at each other in Florida governor’s debate
T
If Florida’s GOP debate for governor has no Byron Donalds, does it count?
M
Byron Donalds’ front-runner wall grows with Blaise Ingoglia endorsement
M
A pro-AI group spent $500K on ads for Byron Donalds using controversial media firm
M
Airbnb gives $1 million to Byron Donalds as rentals remain a Suncoast flashpoint
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 49deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements173 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks