Where bettors are putting money — and where they disagree with the polls.
Live prices from Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and Manifold, joined to our polling consensus and model output. We report market signal as one input among many — not as financial advice.
Top contracts that gained or lost the most on the D-side of the contract over the selected window.
| NM-2 House | Democratic Party | KAL | 90¢ | +9¢ | |
| ME Senate | Democratic party | KAL | 59¢ | +8¢ | |
| ME Senate | Democratic Party | PRD | 56¢ | +7¢ | |
| MI-7 House | Republican Party | POLY | 26¢ | +7¢ | |
| MT-1 House | Democratic Party | KAL | 38¢ | +7¢ |
| AK Governor | Begich | POLY | 20¢ | -9¢ | |
| ME Senate | Republican party | KAL | 42¢ | -8¢ | |
| ME Senate | Republican | POLY | 42¢ | -7¢ | |
| ME Senate | Republican Party | PRD | 45¢ | -7¢ | |
| TX-28 House | Republican Party | KAL | 16¢ | -7¢ |
When the price moves before the polls do.
Bettors price in things polls miss: debate moments, ad-buy timing, fundraising shock, demographic turnout shifts. When the market and our polling model disagree by more than eight points, someone is wrong — and historically it's been the polls roughly as often as the markets. Sorted by absolute disagreement.
| Race · candidate | Market consensus | Model prediction | Gap | Direction of bet | Combined volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Governor | 94¢ D ACROSS 2 PLATFORMS | 7¢ D POLIAGG MODEL | ▲ +87pp check | Markets more bullish on D | THIN · FEW TRADES |
| AK Governor | 68¢ D ACROSS 2 PLATFORMS | 0¢ D POLIAGG MODEL | ▲ +68pp check | Markets more bullish on D | THIN · FEW TRADES |
| TN-9 House | 14¢ D MARKET-PRICED | 66¢ D POLIAGG MODEL | ▲ -52pp check | Markets more bullish on R | THIN · FEW TRADES |
| TX-9 House | 16¢ D MARKET-PRICED | 66¢ D POLIAGG MODEL | ▲ -50pp check | Markets more bullish on R | THIN · FEW TRADES |
| CA-1 House | 92¢ D MARKET-PRICED | 44¢ D POLIAGG MODEL | ▲ +48pp check | Markets more bullish on D | THIN · FEW TRADES |
| UT-1 House | 92¢ D MARKET-PRICED | 48¢ D POLIAGG MODEL | ▲ +44pp check | Markets more bullish on D | THIN · FEW TRADES |
| CA-48 House | 86¢ D MARKET-PRICED | 42¢ D POLIAGG MODEL | ▲ +44pp check | Markets more bullish on D | THIN · FEW TRADES |
| MO-5 House | 16¢ D MARKET-PRICED | 59¢ D POLIAGG MODEL | ▲ -43pp check | Markets more bullish on R | THIN · FEW TRADES |
| OH Senate | 55¢ D MARKET-PRICED | 13¢ D POLIAGG MODEL | ▲ +42pp check | Markets more bullish on D | THIN · FEW TRADES |
| TX-32 House | 24¢ D MARKET-PRICED | 64¢ D POLIAGG MODEL | ▲ -40pp check | Markets more bullish on R | THIN · FEW TRADES |
Same race, different prices.
Spreads above 5¢ can reflect platform liquidity, fee structures, KYC barriers, or genuine disagreement between trader populations. Arbing them in practice is harder than it looks. Informational only — not financial advice.
| Race | Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | PredictIt | Manifold | Max spread | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT-5 House | Democratic Party wins | 94¢ | 3¢ | — n/a | — n/a | 91¢ | |
| PA-10 House | Democratic Party wins | 70¢ | 73¢ | 94¢ | — n/a | 24¢ | |
| NY-17 House | Democratic Party wins | 66¢ | 75¢ | 87¢ | — n/a | 21¢ | |
| MT-1 House | Democratic Party wins | 26¢ | 38¢ | — n/a | — n/a | 12¢ | |
| MT Senate | Republican wins | 84¢ | — n/a | 95¢ | — n/a | 11¢ | |
| NY-17 House | Republican Party wins | 28¢ | 31¢ | 20¢ | — n/a | 11¢ | |
| IA Senate | Republican wins | 57¢ | — n/a | 66¢ | — n/a | 9¢ | |
| NE Senate | Republican wins | 63¢ | — n/a | 72¢ | — n/a | 9¢ | |
| MN Senate | Republican wins | 6¢ | 10¢ | 14¢ | — n/a | 8¢ | |
| MN Senate | Democrat wins | 94¢ | 91¢ | 86¢ | — n/a | 8¢ |
Where the dollars actually are.
Ranked by 24h dollar volume where available. Manifold uses play-money mana (M$). PredictIt is share-counted. Kalshi and Polymarket publish 24h dollar volume; the others report it inconsistently.
| # | Platform | Question | Price | 24h volume | 7d Δ | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | KAL | Maine Senate winner? (Party) | 59¢ | $480k 24h | +1¢ | |
| 02 | KAL | Maine Senate winner? (Party) | 42¢ | $343k 24h | 0¢ | |
| 03 | KAL | Which party will win the U.S. Senate? | 42¢ | $67k 24h | +1¢ | |
| 04 | KAL | Which party will win the U.S. Senate? | 58¢ | $37k 24h | -1¢ | |
| 05 | POLY | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 16¢ | $31k 24h | -2¢ | |
| 06 | KAL | Which party will win the U.S. House? | 18¢ | $30k 24h | 0¢ | |
| 07 | POLY | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 46¢ | $23k 24h | +4¢ | |
| 08 | KAL | Texas Senate winner? | 59¢ | $19k 24h | -1¢ |
What platforms are targeting next.
A new market on a race often precedes news pickup by 24–48 hours.
The home stretch.
Bettors price in late polls, ad buys, and last-minute events. Activity tends to spike in the final two weeks.
| Days left | Race | Candidate | Platform | Current price | 7d change | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | Market-implied Trump approval | (Kalshi) | KAL | 40¢ | 0¢ | OPEN ↗ |
Four very different rooms.
Polymarket carries the majority of dollar volume; Kalshi has the broadest race coverage; PredictIt traders skew older with a $850 per-contract cap; Manifold uses play-money mana. Treat them as different sample populations, not interchangeable price sources.
How often does a 70¢ market actually happen 70% of the time?
Each dot will be a contract that's closed: the x-axis its final YES price, the y-axis whether it actually resolved YES. A perfectly-calibrated market sits along the diagonal — closing at 70¢ when the underlying happens roughly 70% of the time.
A contract trading at 64¢ YES means the market estimates a 64% probability that the question resolves YES — once you discount platform fees and the cost of holding capital until resolution. The price isn't a forecast made by one model; it's an aggregation of every trade made by every bettor with skin in the game.
Why markets can disagree with polls. Bettors price in signals polls don't catch: debate moments, ad-buy timing, fundraising surprises, electoral-college math, demographic turnout shifts. When the consensus market price moves before any new poll is released, that's usually what's happening.
Why markets can be wrong. Thin liquidity makes single trades move prices. Manipulation attempts happen. News shocks. Platform fees skew long-tail prices upward. Withdrawal limits depress demand. The trader population is biased — toward US-based, capital-flexible, politically-engaged men — and so are its blind spots.
Why we publish this. We report market signal alongside polling consensus and our forecast model so readers can triangulate between three imperfect signals — not because we endorse betting. We don't link to “open account” buttons. We don't sell trade ideas. We tell you where the dollars are because where the dollars are is information.