Races · Senate · 2026 · Iowa
Senate · class II · open seat
Josh Turek vs Ashley Hinson
Where this race stands
VerifiedRepublican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are competing for Iowa's U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. The race rates as a tossup based on polling, with an average margin of just 0.4 points. The most recent survey, from New York Times/Siena University (June 27, 2026, 600 likely voters), showed Hinson leading Turek 48–46 [1]; a same-date Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. poll of registered voters had Turek ahead 50–46 [2]. Prediction markets place Hinson's probability of winning at approximately 57–58% on Kalshi and Polymarket [7][8].
CITATIONS · tossup · high-tipping · stable · uncertainty-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
54
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement38
7.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution38 / 100
Measured7.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion25
2.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution25 / 100
Measured2.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity0
8 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution0 / 100
Measured8 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +8.7
80% CI: R +19.0 → D +1.6 · win prob 14%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 12 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +8.5
80% CI R +14.3 → R +7.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.1
80% CI R +2.6 → D +0.4
CV MAE 1.19
consensusMarket-implied
R +2.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 41¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 6 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 41% · polls 47%.
Cross-platform price · history
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
4 polls · through Jun 27, 2026 · latest The New York Times/Siena University
Ashley Hinson
VoteHub46.5%
VoteHub
Polling average46.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg47.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt below our average
Josh Turek
VoteHub46.5%
VoteHub
Polling average46.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg46.6%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average46.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.1 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 4 polls (through Jun 27, 2026): Ashley Hinson 46.5%, Josh Turek 46.5%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 12 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30 | Fox NewsFor · Fox News | 1,003 · RV | D-LEAN | D +2.121 tracked | +2.7d lean | 50 · 46 |
| Jun 30 | Siena College+1For · The New York Times | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 46 · 48 |
| Jun 26 | New York Times/Siena University+1For · Siena University | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.3d lean | 46 · 48 |
| Jun 26 | Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research+1For · Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,003 · RV | R-LEAN | — | +5.2d lean | 50 · 46 |
| Jun 25 | Cygnal | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.954 tracked | +1.2aligned | 44 · 46 |
| Jun 18 | CygnalFor · Internal R-aligned | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.954 tracked | +1.2aligned | 44 · 46 |
| Jun 10 | Global Strategy GroupFor · Internal D-aligned | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.6d lean | 47 · 45 |
| Jun 3 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 557 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 46 · 46 |
| Apr 20 | Echelon Insights+2 | 377 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 46 · 45 |
| Apr 8 | Echelon Insights+3For · Internal R-aligned | 377 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 46 · 45 |
Endorsements · 49 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet23
26
Endorsements tracked
Josh Turek23 · 47%
Ashley Hinson26 · 53%
Total49
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RAshley Hinson26 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials23
Federal 18State 5Local 0
Elected officials · 23
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Bobby Kaufmann · majority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2025–present) from HD-82 (2013–present)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-1 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-6 (2015–present)
- Kim Reynolds · governor of Iowa (2017–present)
- Terry Branstad · former U.S. ambassador to China (2017–2020) and governor of Iowa (1983–1999, 2011–2017)
- Brenna Bird · attorney general of Iowa (2023–present)
- Paul Pate · secretary of state of Iowa (1995–1999, 2015–present)
- Elise Stefanik · NY-21 (2015–present)
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks · IA-1 (2021–present)
- Zach Nunn · IA-3 (2023–present)
- Chuck Grassley · president pro tempore (2019–2021, 2025–present) from Iowa (1981–present)
- Dave McCormick · Pennsylvania (2025–present)
- Jerry Moran · Kansas (2011–present)
- Jim Banks · Indiana (2025–present)
- Joni Ernst · Iowa (2015–present)
- Katie Britt · Alabama (2023–present)
- Markwayne Mullin · U.S. secretary of homeland security (2026–present)
- Mike Naig · Iowa secretary of agriculture (2018–present)
- Shelley Moore Capito · West Virginia (2015–present)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
- Tom Cotton · Arkansas (2015–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- ClearPath Foundation
- Log Cabin Republicans
- Maggie's List
DJosh Turek23 endorsers
Most notable · Jennifer Konfrst · former House minority leader (2021–2025) from HD-32 (2019–present)
Elected officials17
Federal 8State 8Local 0
Elected officials · 17
- Jennifer Konfrst · former House minority leader (2021–2025) from HD-32 (2019–present)
- Michael Gronstal · former Senate majority leader (2006–2017) from SD-08 (1985–2017)
- Tony Coelho · former House majority whip (1987–1989) from CA-15 (1979–1989)
- Zach Wahls · former Senate minority leader (2020–2023) from SD-43 (2019–present) and former candidate for this seat
- Andy McGuire · former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party (2015–2017)
- Sally Pederson · former lieutenant governor of Iowa (1999–2007)
- Tom Miller · former attorney general of Iowa (1979–1991, 1995–2023)
- J. D. Scholten · HD-01 (2023–present) and former candidate for this seat
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Pam Jochum · former Senate president (2013–2017) from SD-36 (2009–2025)
- Bob Casey Jr. · former Pennsylvania (2007–2025)
- Catherine Cortez Masto · Nevada (2017–present)
- Maggie Hassan · New Hampshire (2017–present)
- Pete Buttigieg · former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
- Robert Dvorsky · former SD-37 (1995–2019)
- Tammy Duckworth · Illinois (2017–present)
- Tom Harkin · former Iowa (1985–2015)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- End Citizens United
- Heat and Frost Insulators · Local 39
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 222IN
- VoteVets
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- KNIA · an Sage, market director for KNIA and former candidate for this seat
Other1
Other · 1
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-20Josh TurekS6IA00298 ↗
Receipts
$3.5M
Disburse
$2.7M
Cash on hand
$726.4K
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$42.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $42.5K
- Trial Lawyers for Justice · $35.0K
- Stuart Tinley Law Firm · $7.5K
Individuals $42.5K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$9.1K
Securities & investment · $9.1K
- Jane Street · $9.1K
Individuals $9.1K · PACs $0
Govt employees$8.1K
Govt employees · $8.1K
- State of Iowa · $8.1K
Individuals $8.1K · PACs $0
Crop production$7.5K
Crop production · $7.5K
- Advantage Administrators · $7.5K
Individuals $7.5K · PACs $0
Internet$7.4K
Internet · $7.4K
- Google · $7.4K
Individuals $7.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
TRIAL LAWYERS FOR JUSTICE$35.0K
JANE STREET$9.1K
STATE OF IOWA$8.1K
ADVANTAGE ADMINISTRATORS$7.5K
STUART TINLEY LAW FIRM$7.5K
Ashley HinsonS6IA00314 ↗
Receipts
$8.2M
Disburse
$4.1M
Cash on hand
$6.0M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
Electric utilities$30.0K
Electric utilities · $30.0K
- Nextera Energy · $30.0K
Individuals $30.0K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$23.0K
Securities & investment · $23.0K
- Blackstone · $23.0K
Individuals $23.0K · PACs $0
Self-employed / business owner$18.9K
Self-employed / business owner · $18.9K
- Entrepreneur · $18.9K
Individuals $18.9K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$17.5K
TV / movies / music · $17.5K
- Universal Industries INC · $17.5K
Individuals $17.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$68.9K
MARQUIS MANAGEMENT$33.0K
NEXTERA ENERGY$30.0K
BLACKSTONE$23.0K
ENTREPRENEUR$18.9K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$12.9M
D side
$10.3M · 80%
R side
$2.6M · 20%
Top spender
VoteVets
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteVets super pac · boosts D
| D | $9.8M | 76% | for Josh Turek |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.7M | 13% | for Ashley Hinson |
| SLF PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $654.6K | 5% | for Ashley Hinson |
| AB PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $536.9K | 4% | against Ashley Hinson |
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $215.9K | 2% | for Ashley Hinson |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee other · boosts R
| R | $14.7K | 0% | for Ashley Hinson |
| BLUE SHIFT PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $6.8K | 0% | for Josh Turek |
| BLUE DEMOCRACY NETWORK super pac · boosts D
| D | $5.6K | 0% | for Josh Turek |
| DEMOCRATIC FUTURE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.4K | 0% | for Josh Turek |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
Lean R4
Lean R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jun 1
- The Economist · Jun 3
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
The Cook Political Report
Lean RThe Economist
Lean RInside Elections
Lean RRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
94 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles94
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.07
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.17 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.07
Week-over-weekshift −0.17 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 9%
Neutral 90%
R 1%
10% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets9%
Neutral90%
R-leaning outlets1%
10% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
New polling offers early snapshot of Iowa's US Senate race
R
Turek, seeking Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat, sees danger in farm economy
K
Iowa Senate candidate Josh Turek outlines farm policies, calls for right-to-repair and tariff relief
N
Poll finds Iowa's Senate campaign tight, as Rob Sand leads for governor
I
Republicans shares why he is voting for Josh Turek in the upcoming Senate election
E
Democratic candidate Turek holds 4-point lead over Hinson in Iowa Senate race
K
Iowa’s U.S. Senator Ernst holds final Small Business Expo
T
Polls: Iowa’s U.S. Senate campaign tight, Sand leads for governor
B
Rep. Hinson says ag labor shortages need attention
D
See Josh Turek begin statewide tour for U.S. Senate in Cedar Rapids
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified11 / 12deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-20
Endorsements78 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks