Races · Senate · 2026 · Idaho
Senate · class II · open seat
David Roth vs Jim Risch
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
Polling average rates this race Safe R (R+33.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.3 (10th pctile) to R+14.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.4% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward R at 10.3pp/wk over the 60d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 88/100 (high). Key drivers: high poll dispersion (6.6pp std-dev); wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
88
High uncertainty
Main driver: high poll dispersion (6.6pp std-dev).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement69
13.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution69 / 100
Measured13.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion66
6.6pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution66 / 100
Measured6.6pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity63
3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution63 / 100
Measured3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.0
80% CI: R +35.3 → R +14.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +38.8
80% CI R +41.1 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +36.9
80% CI R +39.5 → R +34.3
CV MAE 2.03
consensusMarket-implied
R +17.7
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 4¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 10 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 4% · polls 14%.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10 | Peak Insights | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 15 · 55 |
| Jun 6 | Peak InsightsFor · Internal R-aligned | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 15 · 55 |
| May 31 | The Bullfinch GroupFor · Bullfinch Group | 774 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +6.33 tracked | +5.9d lean | 15 · 41 |
| Mar 16 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 639 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 48 |
Endorsements · 3 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
2
Endorsements tracked
David Roth1 · 33%
Jim Risch2 · 67%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJim Risch2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
DDavid Roth1 endorser
Most notable · Idaho Statesman
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Idaho Statesman
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Jim Risch
Receipts
$2.9M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$3.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Pharma / health products$7.0K
Pharma / health products · $7.0K
- Queens Midnight Pharmacy · $7.0K
Individuals $7.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ACCESS INDUSTRIES$14.0K
HUNTER ENGINEERING$12.0K
THE INVUS GROUP LLC$10.5K
BGR GROUP$10.5K
ALLIANTGROUP$10.0K
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- The Economist · May 21
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
8 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
8 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles8
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.12
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.12
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 12%
Neutral 88%
12% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets12%
Neutral88%
R-leaning outlets0%
12% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Idaho U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
I
Roth, not Achilles, has the best shot at defeating Risch | Opinion
I
Roth, not Achilles, has the best shot at defeating Risch | Opinion
L
OPINION: Idaho’s congressional bootlickers have ignored the Constitution
N
Idaho’s Jim Risch Can’t Lose
K
Idaho’s Jim Risch Can’t Lose
I
State of Idaho certifies May 2026 primary election results
I
Commentary: Todd Achilles is a qualified alternative to Sen. Jim Risch
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage8 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks