Races · Senate · 2026 · Illinois
Senate · class II · open seat
Juliana Stratton vs Don Tracy
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+18.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.4 (10th pctile) to D+28.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 4.5% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +18.6
80% CI: D +8.4 → D +28.9 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +16.2
80% CI D +7.9 → D +23.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +17.2
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 96¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
Endorsements · 74 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet46
28
Endorsements tracked
Juliana Stratton46 · 62%
Don Tracy28 · 38%
Total74
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJuliana Stratton46 endorsers
Most notable · Greg Harris · former majority leader of the Illinois House of Representatives (2019–2023) from the 13th district (2006–2023)
Elected officials27
Federal 10State 2Local 4
Elected officials · 27
- Greg Harris · former majority leader of the Illinois House of Representatives (2019–2023) from the 13th district (2006–2023)
- Kimberly Lightford · majority leader of the Illinois Senate (2019–present) from the 4th district (1998–present)
- Chris Welch · Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives (2021–present) from the 7th district (2013–present)
- JB Pritzker · governor of Illinois (2019–present)
- Carol Moseley Braun · former U.S. ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (1999–2001) and U.S. senator from Illinois (1993–1999)
- Jesse White · former secretary of state of Illinois (1999–2023)
- Chuy García · IL-04 (2019–present)
- Danny Davis · IL-07 (1997–present)
- Eric Sorensen · IL-17 (2023–present)
- Jan Schakowsky · IL-09 (1993–present)
- Jesse Jackson · former District of Columbia shadow senator (1991–1997) (deceased)
- Andre Vasquez · Chicago alder from the 40th ward (2019–present)
- Angela Alsobrooks · Maryland (2025–present)
- Anna Valencia · Chicago City Clerk (2017–present)
- Bobby Rush · former IL-01 (1993–2023)
- Daniel La Spata · Chicago alder from the 1st ward (2019–present)
- Debra Silverstein · Chicago alder from the 50th ward (2011–present)
- Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Gregory Mitchell · Chicago alder from the 7th ward (2015–present)
- Jason Ervin · Chicago alder from the 28th ward (2011–present)
- Maria Hadden · Chicago alder from the 49th ward (2019–present)
- Michael Scott Jr. · Cook County commissioner from the 2nd district (2024–present)
- Precious Brady-Davis · Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago commissioner (2023–present)
- Sam Cunningham · mayor of Waukegan (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Scott Britton · member of the Cook County Board of Commissioners from the 14th district (2018–present)
- Tammy Baldwin · Wisconsin (2013–present)
- Tammy Duckworth · Illinois (2017–present)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers · Local Union 1
- Collective PAC
- College Democrats · of Illinois
- College Democrats of America
- Cook County College Teachers Union · Local 1600
- Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Illinois Federation of Teachers
- International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees · Local 2
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- National Nurses United
- Patriotic Millionaires
- SEIU · Healthcare
- Vote Mama
Celebrity3
Celebrity · 3
- Gloria Steinem · activist
- Laura Ricketts · co-owner of the Chicago Cubs and Chicago Stars Football Club
- Mary Morten · activist
RDon Tracy28 endorsers
Most notable · John Curran · minority leader of the Illinois Senate (2023–present) from the 41st district (2017–present)
Elected officials27
Federal 4State 21Local 1
Elected officials · 27
- John Curran · minority leader of the Illinois Senate (2023–present) from the 41st district (2017–present)
- Andrew Chesney · state senator from the 45th district (2023–present)
- Chris Balkema · state senator from the 53rd district (2025–present)
- Dave Syverson · state senator from the 35th district (1993–present)
- Don DeWitte · state senator from the 33rd district (2018–present)
- Jil Tracy · state senator from the 47th district (2017–present) (candidate's sister-in-law)
- Larry Bomke · former state senator from the 50th district (1995–2013)
- Paul Schimpf · former state senator from the 58th district (2017–2021)
- Steve McClure · state senator from the 54th district (2019–present)
- Sue Rezin · state senator from the 38th district (2010–present)
- Terri Bryant · state senator from the 58th district (2021–present)
- Darin LaHood · IL-16 (2015–present)
- Mary Miller · IL-15 (2021–present)
- Mike Bost · IL-12 (2015–present)
- Amy Elik · state representative from the 111th district (2021–present)
- Dan Caulkins · former state representative from the 88th district (2019–2025)
- Jeff Keicher · state representative from the 70th district (2018–present)
- Karen Hasara · former mayor of Springfield (1995–2003)
- Kevin Schmidt · state representative from the 114th district (2023–present)
- Kyle Moore · state representative from the 99th district (2025–present)
- Leslie Munger · former Illinois Comptroller (2015–2016)
- Mark Kirk · Illinois (2010–2017)
- Michael Coffey · state representative from the 95th district (2023–present)
- Nicole La Ha · state representative from the 82nd district (2023–present)
- Patrick Sheehan · state representative from the 37th district (2024–present)
- Raymond Poe · former state representative from the 99th district (1995–2015)
- Wayne Rosenthal · state representative from the 108th district (2011–2015, 2023–present)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Daily Herald
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-18Juliana StrattonS6IL00458 ↗
Receipts
$4.8M
Disburse
$4.1M
Cash on hand
$695.2K
Debts
$192.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Don Tracy
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$783.9K
Cash on hand
$1.5M
Debts
$2.0M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10.1M
D side
$233.2K · 2%
R side
$9.9M · 98%
Top spender
Fairshake
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairshake super pac · boosts R
| R | $9.9M | 98% | against Juliana Stratton |
| DLGA PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $221.7K | 2% | for Juliana Stratton |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
The Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Likely DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.31
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.34 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.31
Week-over-weekshift +0.34 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 31%
Neutral 69%
31% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets31%
Neutral69%
R-leaning outlets0%
31% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-18
Endorsements134 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks