Races · Senate · 2026 · Georgia
Senate · class II · incumbent running · provisional matchup
Jon Ossoff vs Republican
Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet
2 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary May 19, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 0d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 59% D
Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+13.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.5 (10th pctile) to D+12.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 59% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 5.8% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling has been stable (stable) over the 90d window.
Uncertainty score: 63/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (20.5pp); models disagree by 8.4pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping · stable · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
63
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement42
8.4pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution42 / 100
Measured8.4pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion0
0.0pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution0 / 100
Measured0.0pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +1.8
80% CI: R +8.5 → D +12.0 · win prob 59%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 21 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +1.2
80% CI R +11.2 → D +8.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +7.2
80% CI D +5.9 → D +8.6
CV MAE 1.05
consensusMarket-implied
D +9.6
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 85¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 29 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 85% · polls 55%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jun 27, 2026 · latest Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
Jon Ossoff
VoteHub56.0%
VoteHub
Polling average56.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg55.4%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average55.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.6 pt above our average
Mike Collins
VoteHub43.0%
VoteHub
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jun 27, 2026): Jon Ossoff 56.0%, Mike Collins 43.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 21 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 26 | Fox NewsFor · Fox News | 1,002 · RV | D-LEAN | D +2.121 tracked | +2.7d lean | 56 · 43 |
| Jun 26, 26 | Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research+1For · Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,002 · RV | R-LEAN | — | +5.2d lean | 56 · 43 |
| Apr 20, 26 | Echelon Insights+1 | 407 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 51 · 44 |
| Apr 8, 26 | Echelon Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 407 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 51 · 44 |
| Mar 4, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 48 · 43 |
| Mar 4, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 49 · 41 |
| Mar 1, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 48 · 43 |
| Mar 1, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 49 · 41 |
| Sep 14, 25 | Quantus Insights | 624 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.5d lean | 38 · 38 |
| Sep 14, 25 | Quantus Insights | 624 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.5d lean | 42 · 35 |
Endorsements · 24 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet24
Endorsements tracked
Jon Ossoff24 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total24
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJon Ossoff24 endorsers
Most notable · Betty Buckley · actress and singer
Organizations15
Organizations · 15
- Actors' Equity Association
- Black Economic Alliance · PAC
- Council for a Livable World
- Council on American-Islamic Relations
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- J Street
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- Planned Parenthood
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Southern Poverty Law Center
Celebrity5
Celebrity · 5
- Betty Buckley · actress and singer
- Jason Alexander · actor
- Lin-Manuel Miranda · actor and singer-songwriter
- Rosanne Cash · musician
- Sara Bareilles · musician
Other3
Other · 3
- Alan Menken · composer
- James Lapine · playwright
- Sarah McBride · DE-AL (2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Raphael Warnock · Georgia (2021–present)
RRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-03Derek DooleyS6GA00408 ↗
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
Pharma / health products$28.0K
Pharma / health products · $28.0K
- Salveo Integrative Pharmacy · $28.0K
Individuals $28.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
DAVISON TRANSPORT$50.5K
CENTEGIX$30.5K
ARCH ORTHOPEDIC AND SPINE$30.0K
WHITCO ROOFING, INC.$28.0K
LIBERTY HOUSE$28.0K
Mike CollinsS6GA00390 ↗
Receipts
$5.5M
Disburse
$4.4M
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$286.9K
Cumulative receipts · 7 filings
Top industries
Oil & gas$57.5K
Oil & gas · $57.5K
- Cbp Environmental · $42.0K
- Boswell Oil Company · $15.5K
Individuals $57.5K · PACs $0
Crop production$21.0K
Crop production · $21.0K
- Farmers and Merchants Bank · $21.0K
Individuals $21.0K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$17.5K
Securities & investment · $17.5K
- Blackstone · $17.5K
Individuals $17.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CBP ENVIRONMENTAL$42.0K
ARYLESSENCE$24.5K
BRENT SCARBROUGH COMPANY$21.0K
FARMERS AND MERCHANTS BANK$21.0K
BLACKSTONE$17.5K
Jon OssoffS8GA00180 ↗
Receipts
$60.4M
Disburse
$32.9M
Cash on hand
$32.5M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
Air transport$72.6K
Air transport · $72.6K
- Delta Air Lines · $72.6K
Individuals $72.6K · PACs $0
Education$58.6K
Education · $58.6K
- Emory University · $35.6K
- Georgia State University · $22.9K
Individuals $58.6K · PACs $0
Internet$57.3K
Internet · $57.3K
- Google · $57.3K
Individuals $57.3K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$23.1K
Computers / electronics · $23.1K
- Apple · $23.1K
Individuals $23.1K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$18.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $18.5K
- Williams Hart & Boundas, LLP · $18.5K
Individuals $18.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
DELTA AIR LINES$72.6K
GOOGLE$57.3K
COX ENTERPRISES$35.9K
EMORY UNIVERSITY$35.6K
KAISER PERMANENTE$29.9K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.7M
D side
$50.3K · 1%
R side
$4.7M · 99%
Top spender
Hardworking America…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hardworking Americans Inc. super pac · boosts R
| R | $4.2M | 90% | for Derek Dooley |
| GEORGIA VALUES super pac · boosts D
| D | $845.4K | 18% | against Mike Collins |
| FELLOWSHIP PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $350.0K | 7% | for Mike Collins |
| SLF PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $313.6K | 7% | against Jon Ossoff |
| America One super pac · boosts R
| R | $87.5K | 2% | against Jon Ossoff |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $28.0K | 1% | for Mike Collins |
| Forward Blue PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $22.8K | 0% | for Jon Ossoff |
| CatholicVote.org pac · boosts R
| R | $17.9K | 0% | against Jon Ossoff |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $2.7K | 0% | for Mike Collins |
| Turning Point PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2K | 0% | for Mike Collins |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D3
Lean D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jun 1
- The Economist · Jun 3
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 10
Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 23
The Cook Political Report
Lean DThe Economist
Lean DInside Elections
TossupRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
135 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles135
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.21
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.18 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.21
Week-over-weekshift −0.18 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 22%
Neutral 76%
R 1%
24% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets22%
Neutral76%
R-leaning outlets1%
24% of outlets classified by editorial lean
A
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Georgia senate race poll shows Ossoff ahead of Collins
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Fox News poll shows Ossoff leading Collins by 13 points in Georgia Senate race
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Fox News poll shows Ossoff leading Collins by 13 points in Georgia Senate race
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Fox News poll shows Ossoff up 13 points in Georgia Senate race
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Jon Ossoff challenges Mike Collins to 3 televised debates in Georgia Senate race
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Who is leading Georgia senate race? Fox News poll suggests a blowout
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified18 / 21deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements46 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks