Races · Senate · 2026 · Florida
Senate · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Ashley Moody
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
3 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 18, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 81% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+7.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.3 (10th pctile) to D+3.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 81% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.1% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward D at +6.7pp/wk over the 60d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 59/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (20.5pp); thin polling (3 polls in last 60 days). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · tilt-r · high-tipping · trending-d · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
59
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement4
0.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution4 / 100
Measured0.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion47
4.7pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution47 / 100
Measured4.7pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity63
3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution63 / 100
Measured3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +7.0
80% CI: R +17.3 → D +3.3 · win prob 19%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 21 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +7.5
80% CI R +8.7 → D +2.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +7.9
80% CI R +9.1 → R +6.7
CV MAE 0.95
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 21 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16 | Change ResearchFor · Change Research | 1,593 · unknown | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 47 · 45 |
| May 14 | Cherry CommunicationsFor · Florida Chamber of Commerce | 604 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +3.83 tracked | +9.7decoupled | 40 · 48 |
| May 8 | Cherry Communications+1For · Internal R-aligned | 604 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +3.83 tracked | +9.7decoupled | 40 · 48 |
| Apr 25 | Stetson University+1For · Stetson Today | 848 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +15.9decoupled | 42 · 49 |
| Apr 25 | Stetson University+1For · Stetson Today | 848 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +15.9decoupled | 38 · 51 |
| Apr 20 | Echelon Insights+1 | 406 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 43 · 50 |
| Apr 12 | Stetson University+1For · Stetson Today | 848 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +15.9decoupled | 38 · 51 |
| Apr 12 | Stetson University+1For · Stetson Today | 848 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +15.9decoupled | 42 · 49 |
| Apr 12 | Edge/MDW Communications+1For · Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government | 1,834 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 42 · 43 |
| Apr 8 | Echelon Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 406 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 43 · 50 |
Endorsements · 33 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet33
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Ashley Moody33 · 100%
Total33
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RAshley Moody33 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials25
Federal 14State 0Local 11
Elected officials · 25
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Aaron Bean · FL-04 (2023–present)
- Brian Mast · FL-21 (2017–present)
- Gus Bilirakis · FL-12 (2007–present)
- Jimmy Patronis · FL-01 (2025–present)
- Kat Cammack · FL-03 (2021–present)
- Laurel Lee · FL-15 (2023–present)
- Mario Díaz-Balart · FL-26 (2003–present)
- Mike Haridopolos · FL-08 (2025–present)
- Neal Dunn · FL-02 (2017–present)
- Scott Franklin · FL-18 (2021–present)
- Vern Buchanan · FL-16 (2013–present)
- Bob Gualtieri · Pinellas County sheriff (2011–present)
- Chad Chronister · Hillsborough County sheriff (2017–present)
- Dennis Lemma · Seminole County sheriff (2017–present)
- Grady Judd · Polk County sheriff (2005–present)
- John Mina · Orange County sheriff (2018–present) (Democratic)
- Mike Chitwood · Volusia County sheriff (2017–present) (independent)
- Morris A. Young · Gadsden County sheriff (2004–present) (Democratic)
- Ric Bradshaw · Palm Beach County sheriff (2005–present) (Democratic)
- Rick Scott · Florida (2019–present)
- Rosie Cordero-Stutz · Miami-Dade County sheriff (2025–present)
- T. K. Waters · Duval County sheriff (2022–present)
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present)
- Wilton Simpson · Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2023–present)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- Associated Builders and Contractors · of Florida
- Florida Association of Realtors
- Florida Farm Bureau Federation
- Fraternal Order of Police · f Police
- Maggie's List
- National Association of Realtors
- Republican Party of Florida
- Senate Conservatives Fund
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-04Ashley MoodyS6FL00640 ↗
Receipts
$8.4M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$7.1M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$41.0K
Securities & investment · $41.0K
- Blackstone · $41.0K
Individuals $41.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$38.2K
Lawyers / law firms · $38.2K
- Holland Knight LLP · $38.2K
Individuals $38.2K · PACs $0
Education$35.0K
Education · $35.0K
- Full Sail University · $35.0K
Individuals $35.0K · PACs $0
Electric utilities$24.8K
Electric utilities · $24.8K
- Nextera Energy · $24.8K
Individuals $24.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
THE VILLAGES$79.6K
RDV CORPORATION$46.2K
BLACKSTONE$41.0K
HOLLAND KNIGHT LLP$38.2K
FULL SAIL UNIVERSITY$35.0K
Alexander VindmanS6FL00855 ↗
Receipts
$8.2M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$6.4M
Debts
$154.7K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$11.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $11.5K
- Sher Tremonte LLP · $11.5K
Individuals $11.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
THE WONDERFUL COMPANY$14.0K
SKYDANCE$14.0K
MCARTHURGLEN$14.0K
MINNEAPOLIS RADIATION ONCOLOGY$14.0K
MCGURN MANAGEMENT CO$14.0K
Hector Mujica
Receipts
$717.3K
Disburse
$637.3K
Cash on hand
$80.1K
Debts
$206.6K
Cumulative receipts · 2 filings
Top industries
Internet$67.8K
Internet · $67.8K
- Google · $67.8K
Individuals $67.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
GOOGLE$67.8K
COLLAB CAPITAL$7.0K
VINE PROJECTS$7.0K
PROPL$7.0K
CHERRYROCK CAPITAL$7.0K
Angie Nixon
Receipts
$293.6K
Disburse
$21.0K
Cash on hand
$177.6K
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 2 filings
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$3.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $3.5K
- Andrew Darling Law, P.a. · $3.5K
Individuals $3.5K · PACs $0
Govt employees$1.8K
Govt employees · $1.8K
- City of Jacksonville · $1.8K
Individuals $1.8K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$1.3K
Computers / electronics · $1.3K
- Oracle · $1.3K
Individuals $1.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
COMMUNITY REHABILITION CENTER$7.0K
ONAS CORPORATION$3.5K
ANDREW DARLING LAW, P.A.$3.5K
TAG$3.5K
NEMOURS$2.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$560.5K
D side
$31.0K · 6%
R side
$529.5K · 94%
Top spender
SLF PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLF PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $250.0K | 45% | for Ashley Moody |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $170.1K | 30% | for Ashley Moody |
| LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR A SAFER AMERICA PAC other · boosts R
| R | $55.0K | 10% | for Ashley Moody |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $53.9K | 10% | for Ashley Moody |
| Out Of The Swamp PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $26.7K | 5% | against Ashley Moody |
| BLUE BATTLEGROUND PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $3.3K | 1% | for Alexander Vindman |
| BLUE MAJORITY PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0K | 0% | for Alexander Vindman |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jan 28
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jan 11
- Inside Elections · Jan 11
The Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
38 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
38 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles38
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.21
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.43 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.21
Week-over-weekshift −0.43 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 21%
Neutral 79%
21% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets21%
Neutral79%
R-leaning outlets0%
21% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
Alex Vindman campaign identifies potential path to victory over ‘untested’ Ashley Moody
M
Florida Chamber of Commerce poll shows most state voters are proud to be American
F
Florida Senate race: Ashley Moody readies for election fight against Alex Vindman
F
Alex Vindman campaign identifies potential path to victory over ‘untested’ Ashley Moody
M
Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
N
Florida Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Florida 28th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
F
Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
N
Florida 27th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
F
Angie Nixon to Alex Vindman: Meet me on the debate stage
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified21 / 21deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-04
Endorsements44 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage38 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks