Races · Senate · 2026 · Delaware

Senate · class II · open seat

Delaware Senate

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Safe DD +16.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 6 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
98% (D)
2% (R)
Win probability
Democrat98% (D)
Republican2% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +16.7
80% CID+6.4 → D+26.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +16.7 · 80% CI D+6.4 → D+26.9 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

4.5%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 96¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 98% D

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 98%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+6.4 (10th pctile) to D+26.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 4.5% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +16.7

80% CI: D +6.4 → D +26.9 · win prob 98%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	8.01pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +12.7

80% CI D +7.9 → D +23.5

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +17.7

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 96¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

80¢90¢100¢398 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJun 4Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?”	95¢	6¢	+0¢	—	-2
Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Delaware…”	96¢	5¢	+0¢	—	+0
Kalshi “Delaware Senate winner?”	98¢	3¢	+0¢	$0K	+2

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Apr 12

The Economist

Safe D

May 21

Inside Elections

Safe D

Apr 22

RealClearPolitics

Safe D

May 18

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Mar 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 2, 2026Safe Dmodel

Jun 4, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks