Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Leticia Gutierrez vs Alex Mealer
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 86% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+24) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.5 (10th pctile) to D+29.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 86% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
35.1pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured35.1pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +13.6
80% CI: R +2.5 → D +29.6 · win prob 86%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +48.6
80% CI D +34.7 → D +53.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 17¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?” | 17¢ | 83¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 13 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet13
Endorsements tracked
Leticia Gutierrez0 · 0%
Alex Mealer13 · 100%
Total13
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RAlex Mealer13 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 5State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN–08 (2015–present)
- Brian Babin · TX-36 (2015–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- David McIntosh · former IN-02 (1995–2001)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- Club for Growth
- Maggie's List
- Municipal Police Association · ociation
- Police Association · ssociation
- Police Officer's Union · r's Union
- Police Retired Officers Association · ociation
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Jim McIngvale · businessman
DLeticia Gutierrez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-03Alex MealerH6TX09140 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$414.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Leticia Gutierrez
Receipts
$40.0K
Disburse
$34.1K
Cash on hand
$6.0K
Debts
$500
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.3M
D side
$412.1K · 8%
R side
$4.8M · 92%
Top spender
Club for Growth Action
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club for Growth Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.1M | 21% | for Alex Mealer |
| VETERANS DUTY FUND other · boosts R
| R | $749.8K | 14% | for Alex Mealer |
| DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $646.3K | 12% | for Alex Mealer |
| Win it Back PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $616.2K | 12% | for Alex Mealer |
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS other · boosts R
| R | $461.9K | 9% | for Alex Mealer |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements45 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks