Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Caitlin Rourk vs Chris Gober
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.7 (10th pctile) to R+7.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.6
80% CI: R +39.7 → R +7.5 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +28.5
80% CI R +36.5 → R +19.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.9
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-10 House seat?” | 14¢ | 83¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 15 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet3
12
Endorsements tracked
Caitlin Rourk3 · 20%
Chris Gober12 · 80%
Total15
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RChris Gober12 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials9
Federal 8State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-08 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Michael McCaul · TX-10 (2005–present)
- David McIntosh · former IN-02 (1995–2001)
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Club for Growth
- Leading the Future
- Turning Point Action
DCaitlin Rourk3 endorsers
Most notable · Austin American-Statesman
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Austin American-Statesman
- The Austin Chronicle
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AFL-CIO · FL-CIO
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-06Chris GoberH6TX10221 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$2.0M
Cash on hand
$262.8K
Debts
$750.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Caitlin Rourk
Receipts
$244.0K
Disburse
$188.1K
Cash on hand
$55.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.6M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.6M · 100%
Top spender
AMERICAN MISSION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN MISSION super pac · boosts R
| R | $747.5K | 47% | for Chris Gober |
| CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $473.8K | 30% | for Chris Gober |
| Club for Growth Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $229.9K | 15% | for Chris Gober |
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS super pac · boosts R
| R | $91.7K | 6% | for Chris Gober |
| Charter Schools Action PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $28.4K | 2% | for Chris Gober |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-06
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks