Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Laura Jones vs Jessica Steinmann
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+29.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.3 (10th pctile) to R+13.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +29.2
80% CI: R +45.3 → R +13.1 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +36.5
80% CI R +42.9 → R +30.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 8¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-08 House seat?” | 8¢ | 93¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 32 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet2
30
Endorsements tracked
Laura Jones2 · 6%
Jessica Steinmann30 · 94%
Total32
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJessica Steinmann30 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials28
Federal 16State 8Local 0
Elected officials · 28
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN–08 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Dan Patrick · lieutenant governor of Texas (2015–present)
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
- Rick Perry · former governor of Texas (2000–2015)
- Brenna Bird · attorney general of Iowa (2023–present)
- John McCuskey · attorney general of West Virginia (2025–present)
- Kris Kobach · attorney general of Kansas (2023–present)
- Steve Marshall · attorney general of Alabama (2017–present)
- Todd Rokita · attorney general of Indiana (2021–present)
- August Pfluger · TX-11 (2021–present)
- Jake Ellzey · TX-06 (2021–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Kevin Hern · OK-01 (2018–present)
- Lance Gooden · TX-05 (2019–present)
- Lisa McClain · MI-09 (2021–present)
- Randy Weber · TX-14 (2013–present)
- Ronny Jackson · TX-13 (2021–present)
- Brandon Gill · TX–26 (2025–present)
- David Bernhardt · United States Secretary of the Interior (2019–2021)
- Jerry Weller · former IL-11 (1995–2009)
- Kenny Marchant · former TX-24 (2005–2021)
- Morgan Luttrell · TX–08 (2023–present)
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present)
- Ted Poe · former TX-02 (2005–2019)
- Troy Nehls · TX–22 (2021–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Brandon Creighton · chancellor of the Texas Tech University System (2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
DLaura Jones2 endorsers
Most notable · Houston Chronicle
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Houston Chronicle
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-04Jessica SteinmannH6TX08209 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$131.1K
Debts
$525.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Laura Jones
Receipts
$13.4K
Disburse
$9.7K
Cash on hand
$6.2K
Debts
$2.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.7M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.7M · 100%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS super pac · boosts R
| R | $771.7K | 44% | for Jessica Steinmann |
| AMERICAN MISSION super pac · boosts R
| R | $511.0K | 29% | for Jessica Steinmann |
| TRUE TEXAS VALUES PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $231.1K | 13% | for Jessica Steinmann |
| WFW ACTION FUND INC pac · boosts R
| R | $220.8K | 13% | for Jessica Steinmann |
| Turning Point PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $8.8K | 1% | for Jessica Steinmann |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-04
Endorsements35 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks