Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
New York house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 64% D · market gap 10pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Likely D (D win prob 75%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.4 (10th pctile) to D+20.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 64% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 4.0% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 93/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 64%, market says 75% — 11pp gap.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
93
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement44
8.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution44 / 100
Measured8.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +4.7
80% CI: R +11.4 → D +20.8 · win prob 64%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +2.0
80% CI R +15.1 → D +4.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +6.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 76¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Feb 17, 2026 · latest Impact Research
Dem
VoteHub44.0%
VoteHub
Polling average44.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Rep
VoteHub39.0%
VoteHub
Polling average39.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Feb 17, 2026): Dem 44.0%, Rep 39.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
Endorsements · 24 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet24
Endorsements tracked
Cait Conley24 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total24
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DCait Conley24 endorsers
Most notable · Eliot Spitzer · former governor of New York (2007–2008)
Organizations13
Organizations · 13
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Dutchess County · Democratic Committee
- EMILYs List
- End Citizens United
- Equality PAC
- Giffords
- LPAC
- Majority Democrats
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- New York State United Teachers
- NewDem Action Fund
- Putnam County · Democratic Committee
- VoteVets
Elected officials10
Federal 8State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 10
- Eliot Spitzer · former governor of New York (2007–2008)
- Maura Sullivan · former Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs (2015)
- Jason Crow · CO-06 (2019–present)
- Mark Takano · CA-39 (2013–present)
- Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
- Ritchie Torres · NY-15 (2021–present)
- Seth Moulton · MA-06 (2015–present)
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
- Mimi Rocah · former District Attorney of Westchester County (2021-2024)
- Sean Patrick Maloney · former NY-18 (2013-2023)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Gloria Steinem · prominent feminism activist
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-16Cait ConleyH6NY17171 ↗
Receipts
$3.3M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$941.0K
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$3.3M
D side
$1.8M · 54%
R side
$1.5M · 46%
Top spender
PROGRESSIVE CHAMPIO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROGRESSIVE CHAMPIONS PAC other · boosts R
| R | $1.5M | 46% | against Cait Conley |
| VoteVets super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.1M | 33% | for Cait Conley |
| New Democrat Majority super pac · boosts D
| D | $522.7K | 16% | for Cait Conley |
| AFT Solidarity pac · boosts D
| D | $150.0K | 5% | for Cait Conley |
| DMFI PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $381.82 | 0% | for Cait Conley |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
56 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles56
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.32
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.73 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.32
Week-over-weekshift +0.73 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 34%
Neutral 64%
R 2%
36% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets34%
Neutral64%
R-leaning outlets2%
36% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-16
Endorsements72 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks