Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Texas house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 62% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+12.3 (10th pctile) to D+19.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 62% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.8
80% CI: R +12.3 → D +19.9 · win prob 62%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +26.0
80% CI D +20.3 → D +38.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +6.3
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 25¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat?” | 25¢ | 75¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Ryan Binkley2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RRyan Binkley2 endorsers
Most notable · Jake Ellzey · TX-06 (2021–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Lance Wallnau · televangelist
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Jake Ellzey · TX-06 (2021–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-14Ryan BinkleyH6TX32159 ↗
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$152.0K
Debts
$2.8M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$173.9K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$173.9K · 100%
Top spender
Texas Path To Freed…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Path To Freedom PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $173.9K | 100% | for Ryan Binkley |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-14
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks