Races · house · 2026 · Montana
house · open seat
Sam Forstag vs Aaron Flint
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 81% R · market gap 19pp
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+2.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.9 (10th pctile) to D+5.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 81% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Polling momentum is moving toward D at +0.6pp/wk over the 90d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 88/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 19%, market says 38% — 19pp gap.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping · trending-d · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
88
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement38
7.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution38 / 100
Measured7.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +10.8
80% CI: R +26.9 → D +5.3 · win prob 19%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +10.5
80% CI R +11.0 → R +10.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +3.3
80% CI R +5.5 → R +1.1
CV MAE 1.72
consensusMarket-implied
R +4.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 32¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 12 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 32% · polls 44%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
2 polls · through May 5, 2026 · latest Upswing Research
Aaron Flint
VoteHub47.5%
VoteHub
Polling average47.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg44.2%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average44.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 3.3 pt above our average
Matt Rains
VoteHub43.0%
VoteHub
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg43.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
Sam Forstag
VoteHub43.0%
VoteHub
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg43.9%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average43.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.9 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through May 5, 2026): Aaron Flint 47.5%, Matt Rains 43.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24 | Impact Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 44 · 44 |
| May 4 | Upswing Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 401 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 43 · 48 |
Endorsements · 30 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet16
14
Endorsements tracked
Sam Forstag16 · 53%
Aaron Flint14 · 47%
Total30
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DSam Forstag16 endorsers
Most notable · Kim Abbott · former minority leader of the Montana House (2021-2025) from the 83rd district (2017–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 7State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Kim Abbott · former minority leader of the Montana House (2021-2025) from the 83rd district (2017–present)
- Susan Webber · state senator from the 8th district (2019–present)
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Susie Lee · NV-03 (2019–present) (candidate's aunt)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Geraldine Custer · former state representative from the 39th district (2015–2023) (Republican)
- Jamie Raskin · MD-08 (2017-present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- AFL-CIO · AFL-CIO
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Association of Flight Attendants
- Congressional Progressive Caucus · PAC
- National Federation of Federal Employees
- Our Revolution
RAaron Flint14 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials13
Federal 9State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 13
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023-present) from LA-01 (2008-present)
- Brandon Ler · speaker of the Montana State House (2025–present) from the 35th district (2021-present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Greg Gianforte · governor of Montana (2021–present)
- Austin Knudsen · attorney general of Montana (2021–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Lisa McClain · MI-09 (2021–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- Ryan Zinke · MT-01 (2023–present)
- Troy Downing · MT-02 (2025–present)
- James Brown · state auditor of Montana (2025–present)
- Tim Sheehy · Montana (2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-07Aaron FlintH6MT01152 ↗
Receipts
$684.3K
Disburse
$299.6K
Cash on hand
$384.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Sam Forstag
Receipts
$694.6K
Disburse
$533.1K
Cash on hand
$161.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.1M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.1M · 100%
Top spender
AMERICAN MISSION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN MISSION super pac · boosts R
| R | $464.8K | 43% | for Aaron Flint |
| LEADERSHIP IN ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $256.0K | 24% | for Aaron Flint |
| MAKE MONTANA GREAT super pac · boosts R
| R | $253.7K | 24% | for Aaron Flint |
| SEAL PAC USA super pac · boosts R
| R | $100.0K | 9% | for Aaron Flint |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely R3
Likely R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
25 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
25 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles25
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.20
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.16 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.20
Week-over-weekshift +0.16 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 20%
Neutral 80%
20% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets20%
Neutral80%
R-leaning outlets0%
20% of outlets classified by editorial lean
Y
New Montana Medicaid rules prompt rally at state Capitol
N
Sam Forstag Can’t Hide The Socialist Stench
N
Montanans support cigarette tax increase, poll says
D
Montanans support cigarette tax increase, poll says
N
Montana U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Montana First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Montana Primary Election Results
N
Montana First Congressional District Primary Election Results
F
Group responsible for $3 million to Democrat in Montana Senate race pulls support
M
Group responsible for $3 million to Democrat in Montana Senate race pulls support
Page 1 of 3
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-07
Endorsements41 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage25 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks