CC0
DemocratRunning for MT-1 U.S. House · 2026
Sam Forstag
Sam Forstag is an American labor union leader and former smokejumper who is the Democratic Party's nominee in the 2026 election for Montana's 1st Congressional District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. He will face Republican Party nominee Aaron Flint and Libertarian Party nominee Nick Sheedy. The winner will replace incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke.
Born 1994 · Ohio , U.S.
In brief
—
No profile summary yet
Summaries are written and fact-checked against the underlying data in nightly batches. This candidate's hasn't been generated or verified yet.
43.9%
Polling average
our aggregate
26%
Win probability
market-implied
$695k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Forstag's money comes from.
B
68/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — in-state funding is the watch item.
1 watch item · in-state funding
Small-dollar reliance80
40% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence64
9% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding29
71% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$695k
Raised
$533k
Spent
$161k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
40% small (<$200)51% large indiv.9% PAC
29% in-state · 71% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-05-13 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
The contest Forstag is running in.
MT · HOUSE · 2026lean r
Forstag (D) vs Aaron Flint (R)
43.9%−0.3 Flint44.2%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Forstag and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: CONORHOGAN16 · CC0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
ypradio.org · 2026-07-07
New Montana Medicaid rules prompt rally at state Capitol
nrcc.org · 2026-07-07
Sam Forstag Can’t Hide The Socialist Stench
northscottpress.com · 2026-07-03
Montanans support cigarette tax increase, poll says
dailymontanan.com · 2026-07-03
Montanans support cigarette tax increase, poll says
Democrat · MT-1 U.S. House
Sam Forstag
Sam Forstag is an American labor union leader and former smokejumper who is the Democratic Party's nominee in the 2026 election for Montana's 1st Congressional District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. He will face Republican Party nominee Aaron Flint and Libertarian Party nominee Nick Sheedy. The winner will replace incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke.
Where Forstag standsRace →
Forstag 43.9%Aaron Flint 44.2%
Market · wins
26¢
43.9%
Poll avg
26%
Win prob
$695k
Raised
In brief
—
No profile summary yet
Summaries are written and fact-checked against the underlying data in nightly batches. This candidate's hasn't been generated or verified yet.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Forstag's money comes from.
B
68/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — in-state funding is the watch item.
1 watch item · in-state funding
Small-dollar reliance80
40% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence64
9% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding29
71% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$695k
Raised
$533k
Spent
$161k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
40% small (<$200)51% large indiv.9% PAC
29% in-state · 71% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-05-13 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
MT · HOUSE · 2026lean r
Forstag (D) vs Aaron Flint (R)
43.9%−0.3 Flint44.2%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: CONORHOGAN16 · CC0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)