Public domain
RepublicanRunning for MT-1 U.S. House · 2026
Aaron Flint
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on June 2, 2026.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Aaron Flint, a Republican, won Montana's 1st Congressional District primary and is running for the U.S. House seat in 2026. He and opponent Sam Forstag are effectively tied in polling, each around 44%. Polymarket data implies Flint has roughly a 70% win probability. He has raised about $700,000 for his campaign.
44.2%
Polling average
our aggregate
69%
Win probability
market-implied
$684k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Flint's money comes from.
C
41/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
2 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance64
32% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
26% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding60
40% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure39
$1.1M in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$684k
Raised
$300k
Spent
$385k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
32% small (<$200)42% large indiv.26% PAC
60% in-state · 40% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-06-10 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Flint is running in.
MT · HOUSE · 2026lean r
Flint (R) vs Sam Forstag (D)
44.2%+0.3 Flint43.9%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Flint and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. GOVERNMENT · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
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Montanans support cigarette tax increase, poll says
dailymontanan.com · 2026-07-03
Montanans support cigarette tax increase, poll says
Republican · MT-1 U.S. House
Aaron Flint
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on June 2, 2026.
Where Flint standsRace →
Flint 44.2%Sam Forstag 43.9%
Market · wins
69¢
44.2%
Poll avg
69%
Win prob
$684k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Aaron Flint, a Republican, won Montana's 1st Congressional District primary and is running for the U.S. House seat in 2026. He and opponent Sam Forstag are effectively tied in polling, each around 44%. Polymarket data implies Flint has roughly a 70% win probability. He has raised about $700,000 for his campaign.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Flint's money comes from.
C
41/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
2 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance64
32% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
26% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding60
40% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure39
$1.1M in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$684k
Raised
$300k
Spent
$385k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
32% small (<$200)42% large indiv.26% PAC
60% in-state · 40% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-06-10 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Related prediction markets
All markets →Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. GOVERNMENT · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)