Races · Senate · 2026 · Ohio
Senate · open seat
Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 78% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+6.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+16.4 (10th pctile) to D+4.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 78% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 9.6% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward R at 2.4pp/wk over the 60d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 68/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (20.5pp); thin polling (3 polls in last 60 days). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-r · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
68
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement28
5.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution28 / 100
Measured5.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion45
4.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution45 / 100
Measured4.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity63
3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution63 / 100
Measured3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +6.2
80% CI: R +16.4 → D +4.1 · win prob 22%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 25 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +5.4
80% CI R +9.7 → D +5.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +0.7
80% CI R +1.9 → D +0.6
CV MAE 0.97
consensusMarket-implied
D +1.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 55¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 7 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 55% · polls 48%.
All polls · 25 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 26 | Siena College+1For · The New York Times | 601 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 47 · 50 |
| Jun 24, 26 | AARP | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 · 45 |
| Jun 2, 26 | Fox NewsFor · Fox News | 1,015 · RV | D-LEAN | D +2.121 tracked | +2.7d lean | 53 · 45 |
| Apr 20, 26 | Echelon Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 413 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 45 · 51 |
| Apr 20, 26 | Echelon Insights+1 | 413 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 45 · 51 |
| Apr 19, 26 | Bowling Green Univ. | 1,000 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 47 · 50 |
| Apr 13, 26 | Bowling Green State University/YouGovFor · YouGov | 1,000 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.2d lean | 47 · 50 |
| Apr 8, 26 | Echelon Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 413 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 45 · 51 |
| Mar 15, 26 | Quantus Insights+1For · Quantus Insights | 809 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.5d lean | 44 · 46 |
| Mar 13, 26 | Quantus Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 784 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.5d lean | 44 · 46 |
Endorsements · 50 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet23
27
Endorsements tracked
Sherrod Brown23 · 46%
Jon Husted27 · 54%
Total50
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJon Husted27 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials13
Federal 7State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 13
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Dave Yost · attorney general of Ohio (2019–2026)
- Frank LaRose · secretary of state of Ohio (2019–present)
- Bob Latta · OH-05 (2007–present)
- David Taylor · OH-02 (2025–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Bernie Moreno · Ohio (2025–present)
- Cynthia Lummis · Wyoming (2021–present)
- Keith Faber · auditor of state of Ohio (2019–present)
- Ohio county sheriffs · ffs
- Robert Sprague · treasurer of Ohio (2019–present)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
- state senators · ors
Organizations13
Organizations · 13
- ClearPath Foundation
- Cleveland Building and Construction Trades Council
- International Brotherhood of Boilermakers
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Locals 18 & 66
- National Border Patrol Council
- National Federation of Independent Business
- Northwest Ohio Building & Construction Trades Council
- Ohio Cattlemen's Association
- Ohio Republican Party
- Ohio Right to Life
- Pike County Republican Party
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America
- Warren County Republican Party
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Vivek Ramaswamy · founder of Roivant Sciences and 2026 gubernatorial nominee
DSherrod Brown23 endorsers
Most notable · Actors' Equity Association
Organizations23
Organizations · 23
- Actors' Equity Association
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Central Midwest Regional Council of Carpenters
- Communications Workers of America · District 4
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- Ohio AFL-CIO
- Ohio Democratic Party
- Ohio Federation of Teachers
- Ohio State Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- United Association
- United Auto Workers
- United Steelworkers
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-27Sherrod BrownS6OH00163 ↗
Receipts
$26.0M
Disburse
$9.0M
Cash on hand
$17.0M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
Education$51.4K
Education · $51.4K
- Ohio State University · $35.0K
- Case Western Reserve University · $16.3K
Individuals $51.4K · PACs $0
Health professionals$49.0K
Health professionals · $49.0K
- Cleveland Clinic · $32.3K
- University Hospitals · $16.7K
Individuals $49.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$18.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $18.5K
- Clifford Law Offices · $18.5K
Individuals $18.5K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$16.1K
TV / movies / music · $16.1K
- Sony Pictures Entertainment · $16.1K
Individuals $16.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY$35.0K
CLEVELAND CLINIC$32.3K
WILMERHALE$20.4K
CLIFFORD LAW OFFICES$18.5K
UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS$16.7K
Jon HustedS6OH00304 ↗
Receipts
$10.5M
Disburse
$2.4M
Cash on hand
$8.2M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$54.5K
Securities & investment · $54.5K
- Blackstone · $34.0K
- Goldman Sachs · $20.5K
Individuals $54.5K · PACs $0
Oil & gas$44.0K
Oil & gas · $44.0K
- Marathon Petroleum · $44.0K
Individuals $44.0K · PACs $0
Health professionals$26.8K
Health professionals · $26.8K
- Embassy Healthcare · $26.8K
Individuals $26.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
MARATHON PETROLEUM$44.0K
BLACKSTONE$34.0K
EMBASSY HEALTHCARE$26.8K
CINCINNATI BENGALS$26.5K
RDV CORPORATION$26.4K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$6.0M
D side
$56.9K · 1%
R side
$6.0M · 99%
Top spender
Americans for Prosp…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $3.2M | 52% | for Jon Husted |
| OHIO FLYER PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.3M | 22% | against Sherrod Brown |
| SLF PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.1M | 19% | for Jon Husted |
| Win it Back PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $250.3K | 4% | for Jon Husted |
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. other · boosts R
| R | $92.7K | 2% | for Jon Husted |
| Forward Blue PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $16.1K | 0% | for Sherrod Brown |
| Indivisible Action super pac · boosts D
| D | $15.5K | 0% | against Jon Husted |
| NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10.9K | 0% | for Sherrod Brown |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- The Economist · May 6
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jan 28
The Cook Political Report
TossupThe Economist
TossupInside Elections
Tilt RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
74 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles74
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.31 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift −0.31 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 15%
Neutral 84%
R 1%
16% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets15%
Neutral84%
R-leaning outlets1%
16% of outlets classified by editorial lean
T
FirstEnergy bribery scandal haunts Jon Husted's Senate race as Ohio ratepayers keep paying
C
Populism politics are pressuring the Ohio Statehouse ahead of November election
W
New poll shows Ohio's races for governor, US Senate to be deadlocked
N
Senator from Ohio introduces bill to end birthright citizenship after Supreme Court ruling
W
After Supreme Court ruling, Ohio Senator says he will introduce legislation to end birthright citizenship
P
Bernie Moreno, U.S. Senator from Ohio
M
Why MS NOW rates Ohio’s Senate race a Toss Up
W
Penny Lee Brown, Youngstown, Ohio
B
John McLean | Supreme Court, Ohio Senator, Jurist
N
New poll finds Husted narrowly leading Brown, Ohio governor’s race tied
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified19 / 25deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-27
Endorsements50 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks