Races · Senate · 2026 · New Mexico
Senate · class II · open seat
New Mexico Senate
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 92% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+11.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.8 (10th pctile) to D+21.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 92% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 4.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 83/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
83
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement18
3.7pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution18 / 100
Measured3.7pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +11.0
80% CI: D +0.8 → D +21.3 · win prob 92%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.3
80% CI D +2.9 → D +20.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.5
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Endorsements · 9 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet9
Endorsements tracked
Ben Ray Luján9 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total9
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DBen Ray Luján9 endorsers
Most notable · The Santa Fe New Mexican
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- American Federation of Government Employees
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Latino Victory
- League of Conservation Voters
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Santa Fe New Mexican
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-12-17Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$310.65
D side
$310.65 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $310.65 | 100% | for Ben Ray Lujan |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
The Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Likely DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
16 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
16 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles16
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.19
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.50 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.19
Week-over-weekshift +0.50 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 19%
Neutral 81%
19% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets19%
Neutral81%
R-leaning outlets0%
19% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
New Mexico state senators voice Project Jupiter concerns
N
New Mexico Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
New Mexico U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
U
New Mexico (2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series Brief #25)
O
Forward Party announces first New Mexico candidate slate for 2026
A
Forward Party candidates file for New Mexico general election ; ballot spots uncertain
M
The Latest: New Mexico generally pleased with budget bill – Ledger Independent
N
New Mexico Primary Election Results
A
New Mexico judge denies independent gubernatorial candidate Ken Miyagishima ballot access petition
H
New Mexico Senator Visits Holloman
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-12-17
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage16 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks