Races · Senate · 2026 · Oklahoma
Senate · class II · open seat
Oklahoma Senate
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe R (D win prob 4%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.1 (10th pctile) to R+17.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.4% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 95/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
95
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement47
9.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution47 / 100
Measured9.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.8
80% CI: R +38.1 → R +17.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +37.3
80% CI R +39.3 → R +31.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +15.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 6¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Endorsements · 11 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet11
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Kevin Hern11 · 100%
Total11
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RKevin Hern11 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials9
Federal 9State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Josh Brecheen · OK-02 (2023–present)
- Bill Hagerty · Tennessee (2021–present)
- James Lankford · Oklahoma (2015–present)
- Jim Banks · Indiana (2025–present)
- Rick Scott · Florida (2019–present)
- Ron Johnson · Wisconsin (2011–present)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Club for Growth
- Tulsa · Firefighters PAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-10Kevin HernS6OK04247 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.1M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$2.1M · 100%
Top spender
DEFENDING OUR VALUE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC other · boosts R
| R | $808.3K | 38% | for Kevin Hern |
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS other · boosts R
| R | $735.6K | 35% | for Kevin Hern |
| FELLOWSHIP PAC other · boosts R
| R | $300.0K | 14% | for Kevin Hern |
| AMERICAN MISSION other · boosts R
| R | $220.6K | 10% | for Kevin Hern |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND other · boosts R
| R | $46.0K | 2% | for Kevin Hern |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
6 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
6 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles6
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
0.00
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score0.00
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
Neutral 100%
0% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets0%
Neutral100%
R-leaning outlets0%
0% of outlets classified by editorial lean
T
Who won the June 16 primaries for Tulsa’s Oklahoma House and Senate seats?
J
Election results: Oklahoma decides U.S. Senate and U.S. House nominees
M
The Latest: Trump-backed candidates secure GOP Senate nominations in Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma
K
Primary Election: Voters across Oklahoma vote in state, county and municipal races
T
Oklahoma Senate primary kicks off race to succeed Mullin
O
Oklahoma primary elections: Democratic candidates competing for former U.S. Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s seat
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-10
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage6 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks