Races · Senate · 2026 · Montana
Senate · class II · open seat
Alani Bankhead vs Kurt Alme
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
Polling average rates this race Safe R (R+22.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.9 (10th pctile) to R+13.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.4% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward D at +1.2pp/wk over the 30d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 60/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (20.5pp); thin polling (4 polls in last 60 days). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping · trending-d · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
60
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement29
5.9pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution29 / 100
Measured5.9pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion25
2.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution25 / 100
Measured2.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity50
4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution50 / 100
Measured4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.6
80% CI: R +33.9 → R +13.4 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 7 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +24.4
80% CI R +28.5 → R +21.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +18.5
80% CI R +20.4 → R +16.7
CV MAE 1.43
consensusMarket-implied
R +22.8
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 2¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 24 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 2% · polls 25%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
8 polls · through Jun 24, 2026 · latest GrayHouse
Kurt Alme
VoteHub49.2%
VoteHub
Polling average49.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg42.1%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average42.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 7.1 pt above our average
Reilly Neill
VoteHub33.0%
VoteHub
Polling average33.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg24.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average24.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 9.0 pt above our average
Seth Bodnar
VoteHub31.3%
VoteHub
Polling average31.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg20.6%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average20.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 10.7 pt above our average
Alani Bankhead
VoteHub30.2%
VoteHub
Polling average30.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg25.4%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average25.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 4.8 pt above our average
Kyle Austin
VoteHub3.5%
VoteHub
Polling average3.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 8 polls (through Jun 24, 2026): Kurt Alme 49.2%, Reilly Neill 33.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 7 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29 | Grayhouse | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 25 · 41 |
| Jun 23 | Grayhouse | 500 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 25 · 41 |
| Jun 10 | Public Opinion Strategies+1For · Internal R-aligned | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +7.33 tracked | -2.7r lean | 25 · 44 |
| May 18 | Tavern Research | 607 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 50 |
| May 17 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 607 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 56 |
| May 17 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 607 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 50 |
| Mar 19 | Change Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 616 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 37 |
Endorsements · 6 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet6
Endorsements tracked
Alani Bankhead0 · 0%
Kurt Alme6 · 100%
Total6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RKurt Alme6 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials4
Federal 3State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Greg Gianforte · governor of Montana (2021–present)
- Steve Daines · Montana (2015–present)
- Tim Sheehy · Montana (2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America
DAlani Bankhead0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-01Kurt AlmeS6MT00295 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Alani Bankhead
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.9M
D side
$3.5M · 70%
R side
$1.5M · 30%
Top spender
Americans for Prosp…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action other · boosts R
| R | $1.2M | 24% | for Kurt Alme |
| AMERICAN MISSION other · boosts R
| R | $286.4K | 6% | for Kurt Alme |
| MONTANA FREEDOM PAC other · boosts D
| D | $217.6K | 4% | against Kurt Alme |
| VOTERISE other · boosts R
| $1.1K | 0% | for Alani Bankhead |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R2
Lean R · 2 raters
- The Economist · May 21
- RealClearPolitics · May 26
Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
Safe R1
Safe R · 1 rater
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Lean RInside Elections
Likely RRealClearPolitics
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
14 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
14 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles14
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.36
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.71 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.36
Week-over-weekshift −0.71 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 36%
Neutral 64%
36% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets36%
Neutral64%
R-leaning outlets0%
36% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Montana Primary Election Results
N
Montana U.S. Senate Primary Election Results
H
Progressive pop-up PAC abandons Alani Bankhead in Montana’s Senate race
F
Group responsible for $3 million to Democrat in Montana Senate race pulls support
K
Group responsible for $4 million to Democrat in Montana Senate race, pulls support
A
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Montana’s state primary
N
New Poll: Kurt Alme leading in Montana
N
Montana First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Montana U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Montana U.S. Senate race expected to be highly competitive
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified7 / 7deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-01
Endorsements29 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage14 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks