Races · Senate · 2026 · Mississippi
Senate · class II · open seat
Scott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 98% R
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+3.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.5 (10th pctile) to R+6.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.2% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement61
12.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution61 / 100
Measured12.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +16.3
80% CI: R +26.5 → R +6.0 · win prob 2%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +20.0
80% CI R +24.6 → R +19.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +7.7
80% CI R +11.2 → R +4.1
CV MAE 2.76
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.9
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 11¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 29 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 11% · polls 39%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026…” | 12¢ | 89¢ | -2¢ | — | +1 |
| Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Mississi…” | 7¢ | 95¢ | +0¢ | — | -3 |
| Kalshi “Mississippi Senate winner?” | 13¢ | 88¢ | +0¢ | $0K | +3 |
Predictit sits 3¢ below consensus.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Apr 12, 2026 · latest Impact Research
Cindy Hyde-Smith
VoteHub47.0%
VoteHub
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg37.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average37.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 9.5 pt above our average
Scott Colom
VoteHub44.0%
VoteHub
Polling average44.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg39.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average39.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 5.0 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Apr 12, 2026): Cindy Hyde-Smith 47.0%, Scott Colom 44.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 26 | Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 39 · 42 |
| Apr 11, 26 | Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 33 |
| Jun 21, 25 | Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · RV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 38 · 51 |
| Jun 21, 25 | Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · RV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 38 |
Endorsements · 23 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet6
17
Endorsements tracked
Scott Colom6 · 26%
Cindy Hyde-Smith17 · 74%
Total23
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RCindy Hyde-Smith17 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials15
Federal 5State 3Local 2
Elected officials · 15
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Jason White · speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives (2024–present) from the 48th district (2012–present)
- Delbert Hosemann · lieutenant governor of Mississippi (2020–present)
- Tate Reeves · governor of Mississippi (2020–present)
- Lynn Fitch · attorney general of Mississippi (2020–present)
- Michael Guest · MS-03 (2019–present)
- Mike Ezell · MS-04 (2023–present)
- Trent Kelly · MS-01 (2015–present)
- Andy Gipson · agriculture commissioner of Mississippi (2018–present)
- David McRae · state treasurer of Mississippi (2020–present)
- Mike Chaney · insurance commissioner of Mississippi (2008–present)
- Roger Wicker · Mississippi (2007–present)
- Shad White · state auditor of Mississippi (2018–present)
- state representatives · ves
- state senators · ors
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Maggie's List
DScott Colom6 endorsers
Most notable · Bennie Thompson · MS-02 (1993–present)
Elected officials3
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Bennie Thompson · MS-02 (1993–present)
- state representatives · ves
- state senators · rs
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AFL-CIO · ippi AFL-CIO
- Congressional Black Caucus PAC
- Indivisible · DeSoto MS
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-08Scott ColomS6MS00133 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$559.6K
Debts
$65.5K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$18.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $18.3K
- Singleton Schreiber LLP · $18.3K
Individuals $18.3K · PACs $0
Govt employees$7.3K
Govt employees · $7.3K
- State of Mississippi · $7.3K
Individuals $7.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
SINGLETON SCHREIBER LLP$18.3K
KAZAN MCCLAIN SATTERLEY & GREENWOOD AP$7.5K
STATE OF MISSISSIPPI$7.3K
MASS GENERAL BRIGHAM$7.3K
LIFEYIELD LLC$7.0K
Cindy Hyde-SmithS8MS00261 ↗
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$2.5M
Debts
$60.0K
Top industries
Oil & gas$11.0K
Oil & gas · $11.0K
- Gresham Petroleum CO. · $11.0K
Individuals $11.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$33.1K
TENAX AEROSPACE$22.5K
HORNE$19.0K
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS$18.5K
NTC GROUP$14.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$581.6K
D side
$482.9K · 83%
R side
$98.6K · 17%
Top spender
Fulcrum PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulcrum PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $420.0K | 72% | for Scott Colom |
| Conservative Leaders of America super pac · boosts R
| R | $98.6K | 17% | for Cindy Hyde-Smith |
| NEW SOUTHERN MAJORITY IE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $62.9K | 11% | against Cindy Hyde-Smith |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
21 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
21 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles21
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
0.00
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.12 wk
Net favorability
Score0.00
Week-over-weekshift +0.12 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 5%
Neutral 90%
R 5%
10% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets5%
Neutral90%
R-leaning outlets5%
10% of outlets classified by editorial lean
A
Soros network targets deep-red Mississippi in bid to flip Senate seat
A
Soros network targets deep-red Mississippi in bid to flip Senate seat
A
Soros network targets deep-red Mississippi in bid to flip Senate seat
W
Supreme Court upholds Mississippi law counting late-arriving mail ballots
T
Mississippi Democrats pin hopes on Scott Colom to challenge Hyde-Smith
A
Harrison: Will Mississippi Democrats be left saying ‘if’ after another election?
A
Harrison: Will Mississippi Democrats be left saying ‘if’ after another election?
Y
Former Mississippi senator, son sentenced for bribery and conspiracy
W
Former Mississippi senator, son sentenced for bribery and conspiracy
M
Colom blasts absent Hyde-Smith, Pinkins promises alternative at Neshoba County Fair as US Senate midterm nears
Page 1 of 3
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-08
Endorsements23 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage21 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks