Races · Senate · 2026 · Minnesota
Senate · class II · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Michele Tafoya
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
2 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 11, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 89% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 91%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.0 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+20.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 89% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 4.5% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 84/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
84
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement21
4.1pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution21 / 100
Measured4.1pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +10.0
80% CI: R +0.3 → D +20.2 · win prob 89%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 5 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +6.7
80% CI D +6.6 → D +11.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +5.8
80% CI D +3.0 → D +8.7
CV MAE 2.25
consensusMarket-implied
D +12.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 90¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?” | 94¢ | 7¢ | +2¢ | — | +3 |
| Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Minnesot…” | 86¢ | 14¢ | +1¢ | — | -4 |
| Kalshi “Minnesota Senate winner?” | 91¢ | 10¢ | +1¢ | $1K | +1 |
Predictit sits 4¢ below consensus.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
2 polls · through Feb 8, 2026 · latest Emerson College
Peggy Flanagan
VoteHub47.1%
VoteHub
Polling average47.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Angie Craig
VoteHub46.6%
VoteHub
Polling average46.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Michele Tafoya
VoteHub40.4%
VoteHub
Polling average40.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg44.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average44.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 3.6 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through Feb 8, 2026): Peggy Flanagan 47.1%, Angie Craig 46.6%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 26 | Impact Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 808 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 44 |
| Feb 10, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 47 · 41 |
| Feb 10, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 47 · 40 |
| Feb 7, 26 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 41 |
| Jul 10, 25 | Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 604 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 45 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet7
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Michele Tafoya7 · 100%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMichele Tafoya7 endorsers
Most notable · John McGuire · VA-05 (2025–present)
Other3
Other · 3
- John McGuire · VA-05 (2025–present)
- Law Enforcement Today
- Tim Sheehy · Montana (2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Mike Lindell · CEO of My Pillow and candidate for governor in 2026
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Jason Garrett · commentator for NBC Sports and former NFL coach and quarterback
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-02Angie CraigS6MN00499 ↗
Receipts
$9.3M
Disburse
$4.4M
Cash on hand
$4.9M
Debts
$389.3K
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Peggy FlanaganS6MN00440 ↗
Receipts
$4.6M
Disburse
$3.5M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Michele TafoyaS6MN00556 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$187.0K
Cash on hand
$1.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
VEIT$14.0K
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$12.0K
KLN FAMILY BRANDS$8.0K
KING CAPITAL LLC$7.1K
PATHFINDER$7.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$6.6M
D side
$5.5M · 82%
R side
$1.2M · 18%
Top spender
NORTH STAR DAWN PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORTH STAR DAWN PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.2M | 63% | for Angie Craig |
| CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.2M | 19% | for Angie Craig |
| DLGA super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2M | 17% | against Angie Craig |
| UNITE TO WIN super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.0M | 15% | against Peggy Flanagan |
| CLEAR VOICE MINNESOTA super pac · boosts D
| D | $54.0K | 1% | for Peggy Flanagan |
| BLUE MAJORITY PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $23.2K | 0% | for Angie Craig |
| MINNESOTA FORWARD super pac · boosts R
| R | $19.7K | 0% | for Michele Tafoya |
| INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC. pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0K | 0% | for Peggy Flanagan |
| INDIVISIBLE ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $911.82 | 0% | for Peggy Flanagan |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D5
Likely D · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- The Economist · May 21
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Likely DThe Economist
Likely DInside Elections
Likely DRealClearPolitics
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
53 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles53
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.19
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.04 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.19
Week-over-weekshift −0.04 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 23%
Neutral 74%
R 4%
26% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets23%
Neutral74%
R-leaning outlets4%
26% of outlets classified by editorial lean
B
Minnesota Secretary of State Posts Candidate List
N
Michele Tafoya to Newsmax: 'Politics of Envy' Hits WNBA With Caitlin Clark
S
Minnesota – A Senator’s Push to Eliminate Assault Weapons
N
Minnesota U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
M
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig in super PAC-fueled Senate campaign war
K
Senator Amy Klobuchar Visiting Eight Northern Minnesota Counties
M
Minnesota Senate race becomes test for progressive momentum
N
Six candidates are running in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Angie Craig in representing Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District
M
Minnesota candidates stress tough phases in own lives to connect with voters on affordability
C
Craig, Flanagan battle for DFL nomination in Senate race
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified5 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements81 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks