Democratic primary · August 11, 2026
Minnesota Senate Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
33
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (12.0pp).
Forecast CI width40
12.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution40 / 100
Measured12.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity25
6 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution25 / 100
Measured6 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 6 polls + fundamentals1Angie CraigAngela Dawn Craig (born February 14, 1972) is an American politician, retired journalist, and former businesswoman. A member of the Democrat…
2Peggy FlanaganMargaret Flanagan ( Ojibwe : Gizhiiwewidamookwe ; born September 22, 1979) is an American politician and Ojibwe activist serving as the 50th…
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 12 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Flanagan | Craig | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 26 | Public Policy Polling | 604 · LV | 43 | 36 | +7 |
| Jun 16, 26 | SurveyUSA | 513 · RV | 36 | 41 | +5 |
| Jun 15, 26 | KSTP/Survey USA | 513 · LV | 36 | 41 | +5 |
| Jun 15, 26 | KSTP/SurveyUSA | 513 · LV | 36 | 41 | +5 |
| Jun 2, 26 | GQR | 500 · LV | 55 | 38 | +17 |
| May 27, 26 | Global Strategy Group | 600 · LV | 42 | 43 | +1 |
| Apr 29, 26 | Public Policy Polling | 652 · LV | 44 | 33 | +11 |
| Jan 19, 26 | GQR | 600 · LV | 49 | 36 | +13 |
| Jan 16, 26 | Public Policy Polling | 976 · LV | 40 | 28 | +12 |
| Jan 14, 26 | Impact Research | 600 · LV | 45 | 42 | +3 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 69 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetPeggy Flanagan · 35Angie Craig · 34
DPeggy Flanagan35 endorsers
Most notable · Jaime Harrison · former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–2025)
Elected officials21
Federal 15State 2Local 1
Elected officials · 21
- Jaime Harrison · former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–2025)
- Juliana Stratton · Lieutenant Governor of Illinois and 2026 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Illinois (2019–present)
- Keith Ellison · attorney general of Minnesota (2019–present)
- Adelita Grijalva · AZ-07 (2025–present)
- Ayanna Pressley · MA-07 (2019–present)
- Betty McCollum · MN-04 (2001–present)
- Ilhan Omar · MN-05 (2019–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Al Franken · Minnesota (2009–2018)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Chris Murphy · Connecticut (2013–present)
- Chris Van Hollen · Maryland (2017–present)
- Deb Haaland · former secretary of the interior (2021–2025) and 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial nominee
- Ed Markey · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Jeff Merkley · Oregon (2009–present)
- Julie Blaha · state auditor of Minnesota (2019–present)
- Martin Heinrich · New Mexico (2013–present)
- Melvin Carter · former mayor of Saint Paul (2018–2026)
- Tina Smith · Minnesota (2018–present)
Organizations14
Organizations · 14
- End Citizens United
- Indivisible
- Jane Fonda Climate PAC
- Minnesota 50501
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
- MoveOn
- National Nurses United
- OutFront Minnesota
- Patriotic Millionaires
- Peace Action
- Service Employees International Union · Minnesota State Council
- UNITE HERE · Local 17
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 663
- Vote Mama
DAngie Craig34 endorsers
Most notable · Hakeem Jeffries · House minority leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
Elected officials19
Federal 15State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 19
- Hakeem Jeffries · House minority leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Abigail Spanberger · governor of Virginia (2026–present) and former VA-7 (2019–2025)
- Mark Takano · CA-39 (2013–present)
- Ritchie Torres · NY-15 (2021–present)
- Andy Kim · New Jersey (2024–present)
- Catherine Cortez Masto · Nevada (2017–present)
- Chris Coons · Delaware (2010–present)
- Collin Peterson · former MN-07 (1991–2021)
- Dan Wolgamott · HD-14B (2019–present)
- Dean Phillips · former MN-03 (2019–2025)
- Debbie Stabenow · Michigan (2001–2025)
- Elissa Slotkin · Michigan (2025–present)
- Jacky Rosen · Nevada (2019–present)
- Jacob Frey · mayor of Minneapolis
- Pete Buttigieg · secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
- Sarah McBride · DE-AL (2025–present)
- Tammy Baldwin · Wisconsin (2013–present)
Organizations14
Organizations · 14
- AIPAC
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen · Division 9
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Elect Democratic Women
- Equality PAC
- Human Rights Campaign
- IUPAT · District Council 82
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- LGBTQ+ Victory Fund
- LPAC
- Minnesota AFL-CIO Building and Construction Trades Council
- Minnesota Professional Fire Fighters
- Teamsters · Joint Council 32
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Jim Obergefell · civil rights activist
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-02Angie CraigS6MN00499 ↗
Raised
$9.29M
Cash on hand
$4.90M
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Peggy FlanaganS6MN00440 ↗
Raised
$4.65M
Cash on hand
$1.14M
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
53 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles53
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.19
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.04 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.19
Week-over-weekshift −0.04 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 23%
Neutral 74%
R 4%
26% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets23%
Neutral74%
R-leaning outlets4%
26% of outlets classified by editorial lean
B
Minnesota Secretary of State Posts Candidate List
N
Michele Tafoya to Newsmax: 'Politics of Envy' Hits WNBA With Caitlin Clark
S
Minnesota – A Senator’s Push to Eliminate Assault Weapons
N
Minnesota U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
M
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig in super PAC-fueled Senate campaign war
K
Senator Amy Klobuchar Visiting Eight Northern Minnesota Counties
M
Minnesota Senate race becomes test for progressive momentum
N
Six candidates are running in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Angie Craig in representing Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District
M
Minnesota candidates stress tough phases in own lives to connect with voters on affordability
C
Craig, Flanagan battle for DFL nomination in Senate race
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 12deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements81 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks