Republican primary · August 11, 2026
Minnesota Senate Republican primary
Field of 1 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
59
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (24.3pp).
Forecast CI width81
24.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution81 / 100
Measured24.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity38
5 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution38 / 100
Measured5 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Michele TafoyaMichele Tafoya (born December 17, 1964) is an American reporter and retired sports broadcaster for ABC, NBC, CBS, and ESPN. Most notably, fr…
2Adam Schwarze
3Royce White
4Tom Weiler
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 8 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Tafoya | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16 | SurveyUSA | 450 · RV | 36 | — |
| Jun 15 | KSTP/SurveyUSA | 450 · LV | 36 | — |
| May 20 | Quantus Insights | 599 · LV | 52 | — |
| May 8 | Quantus Insights | 663 · LV | 52 | — |
| May 8 | Quantus Insights | 663 · LV | 52 | — |
| Jan 31 | Peak Insights | 500 · LV | 41 | — |
| Jan 31 | Peak Insights | 500 · LV | 41 | — |
| Jan 31 | Peak Insights | 500 · LV | 41 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetMichele Tafoya · 7
RMichele Tafoya7 endorsers
Most notable · John McGuire · VA-05 (2025–present)
Other3
Other · 3
- John McGuire · VA-05 (2025–present)
- Law Enforcement Today
- Tim Sheehy · Montana (2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Mike Lindell · CEO of My Pillow and candidate for governor in 2026
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Jason Garrett · commentator for NBC Sports and former NFL coach and quarterback
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-02In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
53 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles53
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.19
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.04 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.19
Week-over-weekshift −0.04 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 23%
Neutral 74%
R 4%
26% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets23%
Neutral74%
R-leaning outlets4%
26% of outlets classified by editorial lean
B
Minnesota Secretary of State Posts Candidate List
N
Michele Tafoya to Newsmax: 'Politics of Envy' Hits WNBA With Caitlin Clark
S
Minnesota – A Senator’s Push to Eliminate Assault Weapons
N
Minnesota U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
M
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig in super PAC-fueled Senate campaign war
K
Senator Amy Klobuchar Visiting Eight Northern Minnesota Counties
M
Minnesota Senate race becomes test for progressive momentum
N
Six candidates are running in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Angie Craig in representing Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District
M
Minnesota candidates stress tough phases in own lives to connect with voters on affordability
C
Craig, Flanagan battle for DFL nomination in Senate race
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 8deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements81 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks