Republican primary · August 4, 2026
Michigan Senate Republican primary
Field of 1 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 9d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.3pp).
Forecast CI width64
19.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution64 / 100
Measured19.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Mike RogersMichael J. Rogers (born June 2, 1963) is an American law enforcement officer and politician who served as the U.S. representative for Michig…
2Bernadette Smith
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
odds to win the seat in November · updated 11h agoNo platform lists a Republican primary-winner contract for this race, so these are each candidate's market odds of winning the general election — winning the nomination is a prerequisite, which is why traders separate the field this way.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Rogers | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 26 | Emerson College | 452 · LV | 55 | — |
| Apr 12, 26 | Emerson College | 452 · LV | 55 | — |
| Jun 18, 25 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 600 · LV | 48 | — |
| May 7, 25 | Glengariff Group | 600 · RV | 61 | — |
| Mar 12, 25 | Mitchell Research | 281 · LV | 25 | — |
| Feb 18, 25 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 600 · LV | 36 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 21 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetMike Rogers · 21
RMike Rogers21 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials17
Federal 7State 10Local 0
Elected officials · 17
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- John Barrasso · Senate majority whip (2025–present) from Wyoming (2007–present)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Newt Gingrich · former speaker of the House (1995–1999) from GA-06 (1979–1999)
- Alicia St. Germaine · HD-62 (2023–present)
- David Martin · HD-68 (2021–present)
- Greg Alexander · HD-98 (2023–present)
- Jack Bergman · MI-01 (2017–present)
- Jaime Greene · HD-65 (2023–present)
- Jamie Thompson · HD-28 (2023–present)
- Joe Bellino · SD-16 (2023–present)
- Joseph Aragona · HD-60 (2023–present)
- Matt Maddock · HD-51 (2019–present)
- Thomas Kuhn · HD-57 (2023–present)
- Tim Walberg · MI-05 (2011–present)
- William Bruck · HD-30 (2023–present)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Americans for Prosperity
- Associated Builders and Contractors
- Log Cabin Republicans
- Michigan Farm Bureau
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-04Mike RogersS4MI00595 ↗
Raised
$7.68M
Cash on hand
$4.25M
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$28K
Securities & investment · $28K
- Blackstone · $28K
Individuals $28K · PACs $0
Oil & gas$15K
Oil & gas · $15K
- Corrigan Oil · $15K
Individuals $15K · PACs $0
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
121 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles121
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.24
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.26 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.24
Week-over-weekshift +0.26 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 25%
Neutral 74%
R 1%
26% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets25%
Neutral74%
R-leaning outlets1%
26% of outlets classified by editorial lean
B
El-Sayed vs. Stevens: What to know about Michigan’s most interesting primary
T
Michigan Democratic Senate primary narrows to one-on-one matchup
N
Michigan Senate Primary Gives Democrats Stark Choice Between Progressive and Moderate Candidate
W
Mallory McMorrow drops out of Democratic primary for Michigan Senate seat
F
BREAKING: Mallory McMorrow drops out of Michigan's U.S. Senate race 📷 provided by McMorrow for Michigan
P
McMorrow suspends campaign for Michigan Senate seat
N
Mallory McMorrow Drops Out of Michigan’s Senate Primary Race
T
Democrat Mallory McMorrow suspends her Michigan Senate campaign
C
Mallory McMorrow drops out of Michigan’s crucial Democratic Senate primary
N
Mallory McMorrow ends bid for Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-04
Endorsements166 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks