Democratic primary · August 4, 2026
Michigan Senate Democratic primary
Field of 3 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
23
Low uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (13.6pp).
Forecast CI width45
13.6pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution45 / 100
Measured13.6pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity0
14 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution0 / 100
Measured14 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 8 polls + fundamentals1Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed ( Democratic Party ) is running for election to the U.S. Senate to represent Michigan. He is on the ballot in the Democratic …
2Haley StevensHaley Maria Stevens (born June 24, 1983) is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative from Michigan's 11th congressional dis…
3Mallory McMorrowMallory Ann McMorrow (born August 23, 1986) is an American politician who has served in the Michigan Senate since January 2019. She became s…
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
odds to win the seat in November · updated 11h agoNo platform lists a Democratic primary-winner contract for this race, so these are each candidate's market odds of winning the general election — winning the nomination is a prerequisite, which is why traders separate the field this way.
All polls · 35 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | El-Sayed | Stevens | McMorrow | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 26 | Quantus Insights | 433 · LV | 41 | 36 | 8 | +5 |
| Jun 29, 26 | Quantus Insights | 947 · LV | 41 | 36 | 8 | +5 |
| Jun 27, 26 | Wedgewood Polls | 353 · LV | 46 | 39 | 9 | +7 |
| Jun 27, 26 | Tulchin Research | 500 · LV | 46 | 27 | 17 | +19 |
| Jun 24, 26 | Susquehanna Polling | 389 · LV | 22 | 20 | 9 | +2 |
| Jun 23, 26 | Peak Insights | 400 · LV | 39 | 28 | 18 | +11 |
| Jun 15, 26 | Mitchell Research | 409 · LV | 42 | 33 | 6 | +9 |
| Jun 13, 26 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 205 · LV | 22 | 20 | 9 | +2 |
| Jun 12, 26 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 409 · LV | 42 | 33 | 6 | +9 |
| May 31, 26 | TIPP | 619 · LV | 31 | 35 | 13 | +4 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 125 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetHaley Stevens · 54Abdul El-Sayed · 50Mallory McMorrow · 21
DHaley Stevens54 endorsers
Most notable · Joe Tate · former speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives (2023–2025) from HD-09 (2019–present)
Other19
Other · 19
- Don Davis · NC-01 (2023–present)
- Emilia Sykes · OH-13 (2023–present)
- Gabe Amo · RI-01 (2023–present)
- Gregory Meeks · NY-05 (1998–present)
- Hillary Scholten · MI-03 (2023–present)
- Janelle Bynum · OR-05 (2025–present)
- Jennifer McClellan · VA-04 (2023–present)
- Lauren Underwood · IL-14 (2019–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Lucy McBath · GA-06 (2019–present)
- Marc Veasey · TX-33 (2013–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Shontel Brown · OH-11 (2021–present)
- Shri Thanedar · MI-13 (2023–present)
- Terri Sewell · AL-07 (2011–present)
- Troy Carter · LA-02 (2021–present)
- Brenda Lawrence · former MI-14 (2015–2023)
- Mark Schauer · former MI-07 (2009–2011)
- Steven Horsford · NV-04 (2013–2015, 2019–present)
Elected officials18
Federal 5State 7Local 4
Elected officials · 18
- Joe Tate · former speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives (2023–2025) from HD-09 (2019–present)
- Lavora Barnes · former chair of the Michigan Democratic Party (2019–2025)
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- James Blanchard · former governor of Michigan (1983–1991)
- Jennifer Granholm · former secretary of energy (2021–2025) and former governor of Michigan (2003–2011)
- Martin O'Malley · former governor of Maryland (2007–2015)
- Dana Nessel · attorney general of Michigan (2019–present)
- 13th Congressional District · Democratic Party
- Andy Schor · mayor of Lansing (2018–present) and former state representative from the 68th district (2013–2018)
- Catherine Cortez Masto · Nevada (2017–present)
- Chris Coons · Delaware (2010–present)
- Colleen Ochoa · member of the Oakland University Board of Trustees (2022–present) and wife of Gary Peters
- Dave Bing · former mayor of Detroit (2009–2014)
- David LaGrand · mayor of Grand Rapids (2025–present) and former state representative from the 75th district (2016–2023)
- Debbie Stabenow · former Michigan (2001–2025)
- Ellen Lipton · member of the Michigan State Board of Education (2021–present)
- Michigan Democratic Party · the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus (2018–present) and former Wayne County commissioner from the 6th district (2003–2010)
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers · Local 2
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- International Brotherhood of Boilermakers · Local 169
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
- Iron Workers · Local 25
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- LiUNA · Michigan
- Michigan Machinists Council
- SMART · Local 292
- Sheet Metal Workers' · Local 80
- Teamsters · Locals 243, 299, and Joint Council 43
- UNITE HERE · Local 24
- United Association · Locals 98 and 636
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Detroit News
DAbdul El-Sayed50 endorsers
Most notable · Keith Ellison · attorney general of Minnesota (2019–present)
Organizations22
Organizations · 22
- A New Policy PAC
- Association of Flight Attendants
- CAIR Action
- Hindus for Human Rights
- Indivisible
- International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees · Local 26
- Jewish Voice for Peace · Action
- Michigan Democratic Party · Grassroots Caucus
- MoveOn
- National Nurses United
- New American Leaders · Action Fund
- Our Revolution
- PAL PAC
- Patriotic Millionaires
- Peace Action
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Progressive Victory
- Track AIPAC
- Track Oil PACs
- United Auto Workers
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 951
- Working Families Party
Elected officials19
Federal 11State 1Local 6
Elected officials · 19
- Keith Ellison · attorney general of Minnesota (2019–present)
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
- Analilia Mejia · NJ-11 (2026–present)
- Delia Ramirez · IL-3 (2023–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-7 (2017–present)
- Rashida Tlaib · MI-12 (2019–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Summer Lee · PA-12 (2023–present)
- Andy Levin · former MI-09 (2019–2023) and nephew of former U.S Senator Carl Levin
- Abdullah Hammoud · mayor of Dearborn (2022–present)
- Alex Garza · Wayne County commissioner from the 14th district (2024–present)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Chris Van Hollen · Maryland (2017–present)
- David Bonior · former House whip (1991–2002) from MI-10 (1977–2003)
- Fadwa Hammoud · former solicitor general of Michigan (2019–2023)
- George Heartwell · former mayor of Grand Rapids (2004–2016)
- Martha Scott · Wayne County commissioner from the 3rd district (2011–present)
- Sheldon Neeley · mayor of Flint (2019–present)
- Warren Evans · Wayne County executive (2015–present)
Celebrity6
Celebrity · 6
- Basim Elkarra · executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations
- Hasan Piker · political commentator
- Horace Sheffield III · pastor and talk show host
- Jon Favreau · former White House director of speechwriting (2009–2013) and co-founder of Crooked Media
- Jon Lovett · co-founder of Crooked Media
- Zara Larsson · singer & songwriter
Other2
Other · 2
- Ben Rhodes · former deputy national security advisor for strategic communications (2009–2017)
- Kyle Kulinski · co-founder of Justice Democrats and political commentator
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Michigan Daily
DMallory McMorrow21 endorsers
Most notable · Winnie Brinks · Senate majority leader (2023–present) from SD-29 (2019–present)
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen · Michigan State Legislative Board
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 17
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Majority Democrats
- Patriotic Millionaires
- SMART · transportation division
- The NewDEAL
- United Association · Locals 357 and 370
- Utility Workers Union of America
- Vote Mama
Elected officials9
Federal 4State 3Local 1
Elected officials · 9
- Winnie Brinks · Senate majority leader (2023–present) from SD-29 (2019–present)
- John Cherry · former lieutenant governor of Michigan (2003–2011)
- John D. Cherry Jr. · former lieutenant governor of Michigan (2003–2011)
- 12th Congressional District · Democratic Party
- Chris Murphy · Connecticut (2013–present)
- Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Karen Weaver · former mayor of Flint (2015–2019)
- Martin Heinrich · New Mexico (2013–present)
- Peter Welch · Vermont (2023–present)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Detroit Free Press
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-04Haley StevensS6MI00426 ↗
Raised
$8.87M
Cash on hand
$3.39M
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$34K
Lawyers / law firms · $34K
- Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP · $19K
- Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, LLP · $15K
Individuals $34K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$31K
Securities & investment · $31K
- Blackstone · $31K
Individuals $31K · PACs $0
Mallory McMorrowS6MI00392 ↗
Raised
$8.62M
Cash on hand
$3.69M
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
Education$44K
Education · $44K
- University of Michigan · $23K
- New York University · $10K
- Wayne State University · $10K
Individuals $44K · PACs $0
Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418 ↗
Raised
$7.65M
Cash on hand
$2.53M
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
Education$54K
Education · $54K
- University of Michigan · $33K
- Wayne State University · $21K
Individuals $54K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$47K
Computers / electronics · $47K
- Apple · $31K
- Nvidia · $16K
Individuals $47K · PACs $0
Internet$34K
Internet · $34K
- Google · $34K
Individuals $34K · PACs $0
Health professionals$15K
Health professionals · $15K
- Memorial Healthcare · $15K
Individuals $15K · PACs $0
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
121 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles121
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.24
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.26 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.24
Week-over-weekshift +0.26 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 25%
Neutral 74%
R 1%
26% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets25%
Neutral74%
R-leaning outlets1%
26% of outlets classified by editorial lean
B
El-Sayed vs. Stevens: What to know about Michigan’s most interesting primary
T
Michigan Democratic Senate primary narrows to one-on-one matchup
N
Michigan Senate Primary Gives Democrats Stark Choice Between Progressive and Moderate Candidate
W
Mallory McMorrow drops out of Democratic primary for Michigan Senate seat
F
BREAKING: Mallory McMorrow drops out of Michigan's U.S. Senate race 📷 provided by McMorrow for Michigan
P
McMorrow suspends campaign for Michigan Senate seat
N
Mallory McMorrow Drops Out of Michigan’s Senate Primary Race
T
Democrat Mallory McMorrow suspends her Michigan Senate campaign
C
Mallory McMorrow drops out of Michigan’s crucial Democratic Senate primary
N
Mallory McMorrow ends bid for Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 35deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-04
Endorsements166 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks