Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Ammar Campa-Najjar vs Darrell Issa
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 58% R
Polling average rates this race Safe R (R+24.7, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+2.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.6 (10th pctile) to D+13.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 58% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
21.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured21.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +2.5
80% CI: R +18.6 → D +13.6 · win prob 42%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +24.1
80% CI R +25.1 → R +18.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +17.0
80% CI R +18.9 → R +15.1
CV MAE 1.50
consensusMarket-implied
D +10.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 87¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 70 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 87% · polls 16%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the CA-48 House seat?” | 87¢ | 14¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 26 | Tulchin Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 14 · 41 |
| Feb 16, 26 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 727 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 18 · 40 |
| Feb 3, 26 | Blueprint Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 560 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.4d lean | 19 · 44 |
| Oct 25, 25 | Blueprint Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 517 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.4d lean | 43 · 40 |
Endorsements · 40 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet35
4
Endorsements tracked
Ammar Campa-Najjar35 · 90%
Darrell Issa4 · 10%
Total39
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAmmar Campa-Najjar35 endorsers
Most notable · Andrea Salinas · OR-06 (2023–present)
Elected officials29
Federal 29State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 29
- Andrea Salinas · OR-06 (2023–present)
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- Derek Tran · CA-45 (2025–present)
- Eric Swalwell · CA-14 (2013–present)
- Grace Meng · NY-06 (2013–present)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
- Herb Conaway · NJ-03 (2025–present)
- Jimmy Gomez · CA-34 (2017–present)
- Jimmy Panetta · CA-19 (2017–present)
- Joaquin Castro · TX-20 (2013–present)
- Kevin Mullin · CA-15 (2023–present)
- Lou Correa · CA-46 (2017–present)
- Luz Rivas · CA-29 (2025–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Mike Levin · CA-49 (2019–present)
- Norma Torres · CA-35 (2015–present)
- Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Robert Garcia · CA-42 (2023–present)
- Sara Jacobs · CA-51 (2021–present) (candidate's domestic partner)
- Scott Peters · CA-50 (2013–present)
- Ted Lieu · CA-36 (2015–present)
- Val Hoyle · OR-04 (2023–present)
- Veronica Escobar · TX-16 (2019–present)
- Yassamin Ansari · AZ-03 (2025–present)
- Barbara Lee · mayor of Oakland (2025–present) and former CA-12 (1998–2025)
- Steven Horsford · NV-04 (2013–2015, 2019–present)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- ASPIRE PAC
- Bold PAC
- Congressional Progressive Caucus · PAC
- VoteVets
- With Honor Fund
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- U.S. Navy · arino, U.S. Navy veteran and former candidate for this district
RDarrell Issa4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials3
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- California Republican Party
- Carl DeMaio · state assemblymember from AD-75 (2024–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Log Cabin Republicans
DAbel Chavez1 endorser
Most notable · Progressive Victory
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Progressive Victory
DBrandon Riker0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMarni von Wilpert0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCorinna Contreras0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-01Ammar Campa-NajjarH8CA50098 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$121.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Brandon RikerH6CA41265 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Darrell IssaH0CA48024 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$692.8K
Cash on hand
$2.8M
Debts
$5.0M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Abel Chavez
Receipts
$455.6K
Disburse
$433.1K
Cash on hand
$22.5K
Debts
$44
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.0M
D side
$738.7K · 19%
R side
$3.2M · 81%
Top spender
DMFI PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMFI PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.0M | 50% | against Ammar Campa-Najjar |
| VETERANS FOR TRUTH PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $687.1K | 17% | against Ammar Campa-Najjar |
| VoteVets super pac · boosts D
| D | $443.8K | 11% | for Ammar Campa-Najjar |
| Serving CA pac · boosts D
| D | $291.4K | 7% | for Ammar Campa-Najjar |
| Health Care Saves Lives other · boosts R
| R | $278.3K | 7% | against Ammar Campa-Najjar |
| Upset the Setup other · boosts D
| D | $198.3K | 5% | for Brandon Riker |
| BLUE MAJORITY PROJECT other · boosts D
| D | $10.2K | 0% | for Brandon Riker |
| ACTIVATE AMERICA super pac · boosts D
| D | $3.5K | 0% | against Darrell Issa |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jul 5
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Tilt D1
Tilt D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Lean DThe Economist
Likely DInside Elections
Tilt DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-01
Endorsements57 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks