Primary · June 2, 2026
California house primary
Field of 6 candidates running on a single ballot (jungle / nonpartisan format). Top finishers advance to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (22.7pp).
Forecast CI width76
22.7pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution76 / 100
Measured22.7pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 7 polls + fundamentals1Darrell IssaDarrell Edward Issa is an American businessman and politician serving as the U.S. representative for California's 48th congressional distric…
2Jim Desmond
↑ top 2 advance to November · ↓ eliminated
3Ammar Campa-NajjarAmmar Campa-Najjar is a U.S. Naval reserve officer, former Obama official at the United States Department of Labor, and politician. Campa-Na…
4Kevin Patrick O'Neil
5Marni von WilpertMarni von Wilpert is a member of the San Diego City Council in California, representing District 5 . She assumed office on December 14, 2020…
6Brandon RikerThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in California will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 52 U.S. representativ…
7Abel ChavezThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in California will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 52 U.S. representativ…
8Mike Schaefer
9Corinna ContrerasCorinna Contreras ( Democratic Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 48th Congressional District . She lost i…
Same-party general possibleThe two front-runners are both Republicans. If that holds, November is a R-vs-R general — which the general view colors by candidate, not party.
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Issa | Campa-Najjar | Wilpert | Riker | Contreras | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | SurveyUSA | 507 · LV | — | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | +0 |
| Apr 29 | Tulchin Research | 600 · LV | — | 13 | 16 | 8 | — | +3 |
| Apr 18 | SurveyUSA | 500 · LV | — | 12 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +6 |
Endorsements · primary · 40 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetAmmar Campa-Najjar · 35Darrell Issa · 4Abel Chavez · 1
DAmmar Campa-Najjar35 endorsers
Most notable · Andrea Salinas · OR-06 (2023–present)
Elected officials29
Federal 29State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 29
- Andrea Salinas · OR-06 (2023–present)
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- Derek Tran · CA-45 (2025–present)
- Eric Swalwell · CA-14 (2013–present)
- Grace Meng · NY-06 (2013–present)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
- Herb Conaway · NJ-03 (2025–present)
- Jimmy Gomez · CA-34 (2017–present)
- Jimmy Panetta · CA-19 (2017–present)
- Joaquin Castro · TX-20 (2013–present)
- Kevin Mullin · CA-15 (2023–present)
- Lou Correa · CA-46 (2017–present)
- Luz Rivas · CA-29 (2025–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Mike Levin · CA-49 (2019–present)
- Norma Torres · CA-35 (2015–present)
- Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Robert Garcia · CA-42 (2023–present)
- Sara Jacobs · CA-51 (2021–present) (candidate's domestic partner)
- Scott Peters · CA-50 (2013–present)
- Ted Lieu · CA-36 (2015–present)
- Val Hoyle · OR-04 (2023–present)
- Veronica Escobar · TX-16 (2019–present)
- Yassamin Ansari · AZ-03 (2025–present)
- Barbara Lee · mayor of Oakland (2025–present) and former CA-12 (1998–2025)
- Steven Horsford · NV-04 (2013–2015, 2019–present)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- ASPIRE PAC
- Bold PAC
- Congressional Progressive Caucus · PAC
- VoteVets
- With Honor Fund
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- U.S. Navy · arino, U.S. Navy veteran and former candidate for this district
RDarrell Issa4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials3
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- California Republican Party
- Carl DeMaio · state assemblymember from AD-75 (2024–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Log Cabin Republicans
DAbel Chavez1 endorser
Most notable · Progressive Victory
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Progressive Victory
DBrandon Riker0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMarni von Wilpert0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCorinna Contreras0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-01Abel Chavez
Raised
$456K
Cash on hand
$22K
Top industries
No industry data.
Marni Von Wilpert
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Ferguson Porter
Raised
$62K
Cash on hand
$22K
Top industries
No industry data.
Corinna Contreras
Raised
$36K
Cash on hand
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-01
Endorsements57 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks