Democratic primary · June 2, 2026
California house Democratic primary
Field of 5 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
80
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (18.1pp).
Forecast CI width60
18.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution60 / 100
Measured18.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 7 polls + fundamentals1Ammar Campa-NajjarAmmar Campa-Najjar is a U.S. Naval reserve officer, former Obama official at the United States Department of Labor, and politician. Campa-Na…
2Marni von WilpertMarni von Wilpert is a member of the San Diego City Council in California, representing District 5 . She assumed office on December 14, 2020…
3Brandon RikerThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in California will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 52 U.S. representativ…
4Abel ChavezThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in California will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 52 U.S. representativ…
5Mike Schaefer
6Corinna ContrerasCorinna Contreras ( Democratic Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 48th Congressional District . She lost i…
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 0 results
Democratic primary pollsNo polls have been published for this primary yet. When pollsters start covering the race, individual polls will be listed here with sample size, lean, and trust signals.
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 36 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetAmmar Campa-Najjar · 35Abel Chavez · 1
DAmmar Campa-Najjar35 endorsers
Most notable · Andrea Salinas · OR-06 (2023–present)
Elected officials29
Federal 29State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 29
- Andrea Salinas · OR-06 (2023–present)
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- Derek Tran · CA-45 (2025–present)
- Eric Swalwell · CA-14 (2013–present)
- Grace Meng · NY-06 (2013–present)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
- Herb Conaway · NJ-03 (2025–present)
- Jimmy Gomez · CA-34 (2017–present)
- Jimmy Panetta · CA-19 (2017–present)
- Joaquin Castro · TX-20 (2013–present)
- Kevin Mullin · CA-15 (2023–present)
- Lou Correa · CA-46 (2017–present)
- Luz Rivas · CA-29 (2025–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Mike Levin · CA-49 (2019–present)
- Norma Torres · CA-35 (2015–present)
- Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Robert Garcia · CA-42 (2023–present)
- Sara Jacobs · CA-51 (2021–present) (candidate's domestic partner)
- Scott Peters · CA-50 (2013–present)
- Ted Lieu · CA-36 (2015–present)
- Val Hoyle · OR-04 (2023–present)
- Veronica Escobar · TX-16 (2019–present)
- Yassamin Ansari · AZ-03 (2025–present)
- Barbara Lee · mayor of Oakland (2025–present) and former CA-12 (1998–2025)
- Steven Horsford · NV-04 (2013–2015, 2019–present)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- ASPIRE PAC
- Bold PAC
- Congressional Progressive Caucus · PAC
- VoteVets
- With Honor Fund
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- U.S. Navy · arino, U.S. Navy veteran and former candidate for this district
DAbel Chavez1 endorser
Most notable · Progressive Victory
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Progressive Victory
DBrandon Riker0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMarni von Wilpert0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCorinna Contreras0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-01Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-01
Endorsements57 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks