Races · Senate · 2026 · Maine
Senate · class II · open seat
Graham Platner vs Susan Collins
Where this race stands
VerifiedRepublican incumbent Susan Collins faces Democratic challenger Graham Platner in Maine's U.S. Senate race on November 3, 2026. The race currently rates as tilt-D, with a polling-average margin of 1.1 points favoring Platner. The most recent poll, from Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research (fielded through June 27, 2026; n=1,003 RV), shows Collins leading 50–47% [1]. Prediction markets broadly favor a Democratic win, with implied probabilities ranging from 56% (PredictIt) to 62.1% (Manifold) across platforms [4][5][6][7].
CITATIONS · tilt-d · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-medium · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
46
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement28
5.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution28 / 100
Measured5.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion31
3.1pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution31 / 100
Measured3.1pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity0
23 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution0 / 100
Measured23 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +0.4
80% CI: R +10.7 → D +9.9 · win prob 48%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 45 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +2.4
80% CI R +10.3 → D +1.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +3.1
80% CI D +2.1 → D +4.1
CV MAE 0.78
consensusMarket-implied
D +1.8
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 58¢4 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 10 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 58% · polls 48%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?” | 56¢ | 42¢ | -1¢ | — | -3 |
| Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Maine?” | 56¢ | 45¢ | +2¢ | — | -2 |
| Kalshi “Maine Senate winner? (Party)” | 59¢ | 42¢ | +0¢ | $822K | +1 |
| Manifold “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Senate race…” | 62¢ | 38¢ | +4¢ | — | +4 |
Manifold sits 4¢ above consensus.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
10 polls · through Jun 27, 2026 · latest Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
Graham Platner
VoteHub47.7%
VoteHub
Polling average47.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg47.9%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average47.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.2 pt below our average
Susan Collins
VoteHub45.2%
VoteHub
Polling average45.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg46.7%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average46.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 1.5 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 10 polls (through Jun 27, 2026): Graham Platner 47.7%, Susan Collins 45.2%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 45 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | Fox NewsFor · Fox News | 1,003 · RV | D-LEAN | D +2.121 tracked | +2.7d lean | 47 · 50 |
| Jun 28, 26 | Siena CollegeFor · The New York Times | 608 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 49 · 47 |
| Jun 26, 26 | Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research+1For · Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,003 · RV | R-LEAN | — | +5.2d lean | 47 · 50 |
| Jun 25, 26 | New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena UniversityFor · Portland Press Herald / Siena University | 608 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 49 · 47 |
| Jun 25, 26 | New York Times/Siena University+1For · Siena University | 608 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.3d lean | 49 · 47 |
| Jun 25, 26 | The New York Times/Siena UniversityFor · Siena University | 608 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 49 · 47 |
| Jun 25, 26 | The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena UniversityFor · Portland Press Herald / Siena University | 608 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 49 · 47 |
| Jun 15, 26 | Wick | 1,008 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 · 45 |
| Jun 13, 26 | Wick (R)/2WAYFor · 2WAY | 1,008 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 · 45 |
| Jun 11, 26 | Quantus InsightsFor · Quantus Insights | 870 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.5d lean | 46 · 45 |
Endorsements · 73 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet57
16
Endorsements tracked
Graham Platner57 · 78%
Susan Collins16 · 22%
Total73
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DGraham Platner57 endorsers
Most notable · Chuck Schumer · Senate Minority Leader (2017–2021, 2025–present) from New York (1999–present)
Elected officials25
Federal 11State 8Local 3
Elected officials · 25
- Chuck Schumer · Senate Minority Leader (2017–2021, 2025–present) from New York (1999–present)
- David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
- Hannah Pingree · former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives (2008-2010) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
- Maura Healey · governor of Massachusetts (2023–present)
- Tim Walz · governor of Minnesota (2019–present)
- Joe Baldacci · state senator from the 9th district (2020–present) and 2026 candidate for ME-02
- Matthew Dunlap · Maine state auditor (2021; 2022–present), former Maine secretary of state (2005–2011; 2013–2021), and 2026 candidate for ME-02
- Shenna Bellows · Maine secretary of state (2021–present) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Troy Jackson · former president of the Maine Senate (2018–2024) from the 35th district (2008–2014) and 1st district (2016–2024) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
- Aaron Regunberg · former state representative from Rhode Island 's 4th district (2015–2019)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Carl Sheline · mayor of Lewiston (2022–present)
- Ed Markey · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Genevieve McDonald · former state representative from the 134th district (2018–2022)
- Joanne Twomey · former state representative from the 19th district (1998–2004) and 135th district (2004–2006)
- Karen Heck · former mayor of Waterville (2012–2014) (Independent)
- Kirsten Gillibrand · New York (2010–present)
- Martin Heinrich · New Mexico (2013–present)
- Robert Reich · former U.S. secretary of labor (1993–1997)
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
- Safiya Khalid · former Lewiston city councilor (2020–2022)
- Tina Smith · Minnesota (2018–present)
- state representatives · esentatives
Organizations23
Organizations · 23
- AFL-CIO
- College Democrats of America
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
- End Citizens United
- Gen-Z for Change
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
- International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers
- Maine Democratic Socialists of America
- Maine People's Alliance
- Maine Service Employees Association
- Maine State Nurses Association
- National Nurses United
- Our Revolution
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Progressive Victory
- Showing Up for Racial Justice
- Sierra Club
- Track AIPAC
- United Auto Workers
- VoteVets
- Voters of Tomorrow
- Working Families Party
Celebrity9
Celebrity · 9
- 2026 candidate · 026 candidate for ME-02 and former candidate for this seat
- Angus King III · businessman and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
- Bill Maher · TV host and comedian (Independent)
- John Hodgman · author
- Josh Ritter · singer-songwriter
- Ken Casey · vocalist for the Dropkick Murphys
- Nirav D. Shah · former principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2023–2025) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
- Shawn Fain · president of the United Auto Workers
- Stephen King · author
RSusan Collins16 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials9
Federal 8State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · vice president of the United States (2025–present)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Jeff Flake · former ambassador to Turkey (2022–2024) and U.S. senator from Arizona (2013–2019)
- Joe Manchin · former West Virginia (2010–2025) (Independent; Democratic until 2024)
- Laurel Libby · state representative from the 20th district (2020–present)
- Mitt Romney · former Utah (2019–2025)
- Steve Daines · Montana (2015–present)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- AIPAC
- ClearPath Foundation
- Log Cabin Republicans
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
- No Labels
- Senate Leadership Fund
Other1
Other · 1
- Nikki Haley · former ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-05Graham PlatnerS6ME00373 ↗
Receipts
$16.3M
Disburse
$14.1M
Cash on hand
$2.2M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
Internet$8.6K
Internet · $8.6K
- Google · $8.6K
Individuals $8.6K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$7.5K
TV / movies / music · $7.5K
- Sony · $7.5K
Individuals $7.5K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$7.0K
Securities & investment · $7.0K
- Jane Street · $7.0K
Individuals $7.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CREATIVE ARTISTS AGENCY$17.0K
CUNY$14.0K
MAINEHEALTH$9.2K
GOOGLE$8.6K
HEART AND VASCULAR INSTITUTE$8.0K
Susan CollinsS0ME00100 ↗
Receipts
$8.4M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$5.3M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$197.5K
Securities & investment · $197.5K
- Blackstone · $71.0K
- Kkr · $70.0K
- Apollo · $32.0K
- Apollo Global Management · $24.5K
- Jane Street · $15.2K
Individuals $197.5K · PACs $0
Air transport$37.6K
Air transport · $37.6K
- American Airlines · $37.6K
Individuals $37.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$71.0K
KKR$70.0K
AMERICAN AIRLINES$37.6K
APOLLO$32.0K
KPS CAPITAL PARTNERS$28.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$16.7M
D side
$1.7M · 10%
R side
$15.1M · 90%
Top spender
PINE TREE RESULTS PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PINE TREE RESULTS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $10.7M | 64% | against Graham Platner |
| Senate Leadership Fund super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2M | 7% | for Susan Collins |
| Senate Majority PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $920.0K | 5% | against Susan Collins |
| SLF PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $875.9K | 5% | for Susan Collins |
| Lead Maine Committee, Inc. super pac · boosts R
| R | $751.1K | 4% | for Susan Collins |
| STRONGER MAINE super pac · boosts R
| R | $539.0K | 3% | for Susan Collins |
| Common Defense Action Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $219.0K | 1% | for Graham Platner |
| National Nurses United for Patient Protection super pac · boosts D
| D | $50.6K | 0% | for Graham Platner |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- The Economist · Jun 3
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jun 1
- RealClearPolitics · May 23
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
The Cook Political Report
TossupThe Economist
Lean DInside Elections
Tilt RRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
130 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles130
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.26
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.26 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.26
Week-over-weekshift +0.26 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 28%
Neutral 69%
R 2%
31% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets28%
Neutral69%
R-leaning outlets2%
31% of outlets classified by editorial lean
A
Maine Democratic Senate candidate Platner faces calls to withdraw after sexual assault allegation
N
Democratic hopes to win back the Senate hang by a thread as Graham Platner weighs dropping out
B
Top Democrats press Maine senate candidate to drop out of race over sexual assault allegation
N
Leading Maine Democrats call on Graham Platner to withdraw from US Senate race amid sexual assault accusation
B
Maine and national Democrats call on Graham Platner to leave US Senate race
N
Who Might Replace Graham Platner if He Drops Out of the Maine Senate Race?
N
Graham Platner faces growing calls to withdraw following allegation of sexual assault
T
Calls grow for Graham Platner to drop out after sexual assault allegation
C
Graham Platner denies sex assault claim as Democrats urge him to quit Maine Senate race
P
Tamara Keith and Carrie Dann on Platner facing calls to drop out of Maine Senate race
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified42 / 45deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested4 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-05
Endorsements112 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks