Races · house · 2026 · New Mexico
house · open seat
Gabe Vasquez vs Greg Cunningham
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 64% D · market gap 26pp
Polling average rates this race Lean D (D+2.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.6 (10th pctile) to D+20.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 64% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 85/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 64%, market says 90% — 26pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
85
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement25
5.0pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution25 / 100
Measured5.0pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +4.5
80% CI: R +11.6 → D +20.6 · win prob 64%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +2.4
80% CI R +0.3 → D +8.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +7.4
80% CI D +3.5 → D +11.3
CV MAE 3.06
consensusMarket-implied
D +10.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 86¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 40 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 86% · polls 46%.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27 | co/efficient+1For · efficient (R) | 879 · LV | R-LEAN | R +5.413 tracked | -3.4r lean | 43 · 41 |
Endorsements · 22 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet14
8
Endorsements tracked
Gabe Vasquez14 · 64%
Greg Cunningham8 · 36%
Total22
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DGabe Vasquez14 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Giffords
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Latino Victory
Other5
Other · 5
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Lisa McClain · MI-09 (2021–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Yvette Herrell · former U.S. representative (2021–2023)
RGreg Cunningham8 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 7State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Lisa McClain · MI-09 (2021–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- Yvette Herrell · former NM-02 (2021–2023)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-01Gabe VasquezH2NM02191 ↗
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$2.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Greg Cunningham
Receipts
$678.5K
Disburse
$329.3K
Cash on hand
$349.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$123.33
D side
$123.33 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $123.33 | 100% | for Gabe Vasquez |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Tilt D1
Tilt D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Lean DInside Elections
Tilt DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
5 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
5 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles5
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.60
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.60
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 60%
Neutral 40%
60% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets60%
Neutral40%
R-leaning outlets0%
60% of outlets classified by editorial lean
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-01
Endorsements22 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage5 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks