Races · house · 2026 · New Mexico
house · open seat
Melanie Stansbury vs Martin Zamora
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 88% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.6 (10th pctile) to D+30.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +14.4
80% CI: R +1.6 → D +30.5 · win prob 87%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.3
80% CI D +2.7 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +11.9
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 90¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat?” | 90¢ | 11¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yetRMartin Zamora0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMelanie Stansbury0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGreg Cunningham0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DGabe Vasquez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Martin Zamora
Receipts
$433.5K
Disburse
$164.6K
Cash on hand
$268.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
23 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
23 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles23
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.35
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.35
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 35%
Neutral 65%
35% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets35%
Neutral65%
R-leaning outlets0%
35% of outlets classified by editorial lean
U
New Mexico (2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series Brief #25)
L
Leger Fernández, Stansbury, Vasquez Probe Federal Drug Enforcement Actions That Allowed Fentanyl On New Mexico’s Streets
A
Deb Haaland endorses Stephanie Garcia Richard for New Mexico lieutenant governor
L
Deb Haaland Endorses Stephanie Garcia Richard For Lieutenant Governor Of New Mexico
E
New Mexico governor race may hinge on oil and gas - E & E News by POLITICO
N
New Mexico Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
Forward Party candidates file for New Mexico general election ; ballot spots uncertain
A
New Mexico congressional members demand DEA investigation into fentanyl walk operations
M
The Latest: New Mexico generally pleased with budget bill – Ledger Independent
N
New Mexico Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage23 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks