Races · Senate · 2026 · Nebraska
Senate · class II · incumbent running
Cindy Burbank vs Pete Ricketts
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+9.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+29.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.3 (10th pctile) to R+18.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.3% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 76/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (20.5pp); models disagree by 16.5pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
76
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement83
16.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution83 / 100
Measured16.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion35
3.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution35 / 100
Measured3.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity50
4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution50 / 100
Measured4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +29.0
80% CI: R +39.3 → R +18.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 9 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +27.6
80% CI R +29.2 → R +22.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +12.5
80% CI R +14.4 → R +10.6
CV MAE 1.50
consensusMarket-implied
R +24.9
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 1¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 38 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 1% · polls 39%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through May 11, 2026 · latest Tavern Research
Dan Osborn
VoteHub47.0%
VoteHub
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg47.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
Pete Ricketts
VoteHub42.0%
VoteHub
Polling average42.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg47.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 5.0 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through May 11, 2026): Dan Osborn 47.0%, Pete Ricketts 42.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 9 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 26 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 1,165 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 39 · 48 |
| May 10, 26 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 1,165 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 42 |
| May 10, 26 | Tavern Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 1,165 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 49 |
| May 10, 26 | Tavern ResearchFor · Tavern Research | 1,165 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 42 |
| May 10, 26 | Tavern ResearchFor · Tavern Research | 1,165 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.6decoupled | 39 · 48 |
| Feb 4, 26 | Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 600 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 48 |
| Dec 16, 25 | Lake Research Partners+2For · Internal D-aligned | 900 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 48 |
| Jul 28, 25 | Lake Research Partners+2For · Internal D-aligned | 900 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 46 |
| Mar 31, 25 | Change Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 524 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 46 |
Endorsements · 6 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet2
4
Endorsements tracked
Cindy Burbank2 · 33%
Pete Ricketts4 · 67%
Total6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RPete Ricketts4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AIPAC
- Club for Growth
- Nebraska Farm Bureau
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DCindy Burbank2 endorsers
Most notable · Dan Osborn · candidate for U.S. Senate (Independent)
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Dan Osborn · candidate for U.S. Senate (Independent)
- Nebraska Democratic Party
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-20Pete RickettsS6NE00129 ↗
Receipts
$4.9M
Disburse
$4.3M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
Restaurants & drinking$25.0K
Restaurants & drinking · $25.0K
- National Restaurant Association · $25.0K
Individuals $25.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
PEARSON & ASSOCIATES$356.7K
HOLTZMAN VOGEL, PLLC$138.4K
S-3 GROUP$123.6K
U.S. TRAVEL ASSOCIATION$69.5K
BP$64.1K
Cindy BurbankS6NE00145 ↗
Receipts
$4.3K
Disburse
$1.9K
Cash on hand
$2.4K
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 2 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.2M
D side
$422.9K · 35%
R side
$777.6K · 65%
Top spender
FELLOWSHIP PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FELLOWSHIP PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $350.0K | 29% | for Pete Ricketts |
| Common Defense Action Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $286.0K | 24% | for Cindy Burbank |
| DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $262.6K | 22% | for Pete Ricketts |
| SLF PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $156.7K | 13% | for Pete Ricketts |
| NEBRASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY party · boosts D
| D | $136.4K | 11% | for Cindy Burbank |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $8.3K | 1% | for Pete Ricketts |
| INDIGO PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $431.09 | 0% | against Pete Ricketts |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- RealClearPolitics · May 26
Likely R4
Likely R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- The Economist · May 21
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 26
The Cook Political Report
Likely RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RRealClearPolitics
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.23
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.17 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.23
Week-over-weekshift +0.17 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 23%
Neutral 77%
23% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets23%
Neutral77%
R-leaning outlets0%
23% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Nebraska U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
K
2026 Nebraska Election: Races, registration and important dates
N
Nebraska Democrats warn of new political party for spoiler candidates
N
Nebraska Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
O
Ricketts wins GOP Senate primary as Burbank claims Democratic nomination
R
Nebraska election results 2024
O
Democratic-aligned poll shows Dan Osborn leading Pete Ricketts in Senate race
W
Today in History - June 18: Former Nebraska senator, agriculture secretary born
J
Nebraska Senate race remains in 'leans Republican' column of national forecaster's ratings
N
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz campaigns for Ricketts in Nebraska
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified9 / 9deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-20
Endorsements34 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks