Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Henry Cuellar vs Tano Tijerina
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 12d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 59% D · market gap 21pp
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+8.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.2 (10th pctile) to D+19.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 59% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 95/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 59%, market says 80% — 21pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
95
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement54
10.9pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution54 / 100
Measured10.9pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.9
80% CI: R +13.2 → D +19.0 · win prob 59%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +1.9
80% CI R +6.0 → D +10.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +8.0
80% CI R +13.1 → R +2.9
CV MAE 3.98
consensusMarket-implied
D +8.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 81¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 43 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 81% · polls 38%.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22 | Pulse Science DecisionFor · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | — | — | 38 · 46 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet2
8
Endorsements tracked
Henry Cuellar2 · 20%
Tano Tijerina8 · 80%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTano Tijerina8 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 6State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-08 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present) (post-primary)
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- NRCC · MAGA Majority (post-primary)
DHenry Cuellar2 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-12Henry CuellarH2TX23082 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$904.4K
Cash on hand
$764.0K
Debts
$238.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tano Tijerina
Receipts
$937.2K
Disburse
$360.5K
Cash on hand
$576.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10.4K
D side
$10.4K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
National Associatio…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee pac · boosts D
| D | $10.4K | 100% | for Henry Cuellar |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Tilt D1
Tilt D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Lean DInside Elections
Tilt DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DSplit Ticket
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.27
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.38 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.27
Week-over-weekshift +0.38 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 36%
Neutral 55%
R 9%
45% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets36%
Neutral55%
R-leaning outlets9%
45% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-12
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks