Races · house · 2026 · Utah
house · open seat
Utah house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 51% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts tied with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.7 (10th pctile) to D+16.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 51% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
23.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured23.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +0.5
80% CI: R +15.7 → D +16.5 · win prob 51%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.2
80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +13.2
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 92¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat?” | 92¢ | 6¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet10
Endorsements tracked
Ben McAdams10 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DBen McAdams10 endorsers
Most notable · Kathleen Riebe · state senator from the 15th district (2019–present) and former candidate for this district
Elected officials5
Federal 1State 1Local 2
Elected officials · 5
- Kathleen Riebe · state senator from the 15th district (2019–present) and former candidate for this district
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Deb Haaland · former secretary of the interior (2021–2025)
- Erin Mendenhall · mayor of Salt Lake City (2020–present)
- Salt Lake City · ake City councilmembers
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- American Federation of Government Employees
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- NewDem Action Fund
- WelcomePAC
Other1
Other · 1
- Martin O'Malley · former commissioner of the Social Security Administration (2023–2024)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-23Ben McAdamsH8UT04053 ↗
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$686.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$3.2M
D side
$3.2M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
THINK BIG
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THINK BIG other · boosts D
| D | $1.1M | 35% | for Ben McAdams |
| New Democrat Majority other · boosts D
| D | $1.0M | 32% | for Ben McAdams |
| America's Credit Unions PAC of Credit Union National Association, Inc. other · boosts D
| D | $300.0K | 9% | for Ben McAdams |
| Article One PAC other · boosts D
| D | $195.8K | 6% | for Ben McAdams |
| WELCOMEPAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $58.6K | 2% | for Ben McAdams |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
8 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
8 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles8
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.12
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.12
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 12%
Neutral 88%
12% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets12%
Neutral88%
R-leaning outlets0%
12% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Utah First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
T
Live results: Utah Democrats jockey for redrawn House seat in primary
S
Ben McAdams wins primary race for Utah’s new blue-leaning 1st Congressional District
U
Poll: Three Utah GOP incumbents in trouble ahead of Tuesday's primary
N
Voters weigh what kind of Democrat they want for Utah's new, blue congressional seat
D
New Utah Congressional District set for bold progressive leap in Democratic primary
R
Moore and Maloy try to stave off GOP primary challenges in Utah
U
Can a progressive beat Ben McAdams? That's the big question in Utah Democrats' 1st District primary
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-23
Endorsements29 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage8 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks