Races · house · 2026 · Utah
house · open seat
Utah house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.8 (10th pctile) to R+7.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 76/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
76
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement3
0.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution3 / 100
Measured0.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.7
80% CI: R +39.8 → R +7.6 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.2
80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +15.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 6¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?” | 6¢ | 94¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet5
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Blake Moore5 · 100%
Total5
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RBlake Moore5 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials4
Federal 4State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Stuart Adams · president of the Utah Senate (2019–present) from the 7th district (2009–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Log Cabin Republicans
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-23Blake MooreH0UT01205 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$1.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$515.2K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$515.2K · 100%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS other · boosts R
| R | $400.0K | 78% | for Blake Moore |
| Center Forward Initiative Inc (CFI) other · boosts R
| R | $99.8K | 19% | for Blake Moore |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee other · boosts R
| R | $13.4K | 3% | for Blake Moore |
| DEFENDING UTAH VALUES FEDERAL SUPER PAC other · boosts R
| R | $1.9K | 0% | for Blake Moore |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-23
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks