Races · house · 2026 · Missouri
house · open seat
Emanuel Cleaver vs Rick Brattin
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 55% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+14.4 (10th pctile) to D+17.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 55% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +1.7
80% CI: R +14.4 → D +17.8 · win prob 55%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +26.0
80% CI D +20.3 → D +37.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 16¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?” | 16¢ | 81¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 17 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet3
14
Endorsements tracked
Emanuel Cleaver3 · 18%
Rick Brattin14 · 82%
Total17
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RRick Brattin14 endorsers
Most notable · Mike Kehoe · governor of Missouri (2025–present)
Elected officials9
Federal 4State 5Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Mike Kehoe · governor of Missouri (2025–present)
- Adam Schnelting · state senator from the 23rd district
- Ben Brown · state senator from the 26th district
- Joe Nicola · state senator from the 11th district
- Nick Schroer · state senator from the 2nd district
- Bob Onder · MO-3 (2025–present)
- Eric Burlison · MO-7 (2023–present)
- Cindy O'Laughlin · president pro tempore of the Missouri Senate
- David McIntosh · former IN-2 (1995–2001)
Other3
Other · 3
- Gun Owners of America
- Mike Haridopolos · FL-8 (2025-present)
- Vivek Malek · treasurer of Missouri (2022–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Club for Growth
- Missouri Right to Life
DEmanuel Cleaver3 endorsers
Most notable · AFL-CIO · i AFL-CIO
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AFL-CIO · i AFL-CIO
- National Education Association
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-01Rick BrattinH2MO04199 ↗
Receipts
$114.0K
Disburse
$2.5K
Cash on hand
$111.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Emanuel Cleaver
Receipts
$890.8K
Disburse
$767.5K
Cash on hand
$1.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$508.9K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$508.9K · 100%
Top spender
Win it Back PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win it Back PAC other · boosts R
| R | $497.5K | 98% | for Rick Brattin |
| Club for Growth PAC other · boosts R
| R | $11.5K | 2% | for Rick Brattin |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-01
Endorsements30 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks