Races · Governor · 2026 · Alaska
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Tom Begich vs Republican
Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet
3 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary August 18, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 6d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% R
Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+11.1, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.7 (10th pctile) to R+7.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 29.6% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
36.1pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured36.1pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.7
80% CI: R +29.7 → R +7.7 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +6.1
80% CI R +15.4 → D +2.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +17.4
80% CI D +15.5 → D +19.3
CV MAE 1.47
consensusMarket-implied
R +7.7
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 20¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 21 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 20% · polls 41%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election?” | 20¢ | 5¢ | -2¢ | — | +0 |
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
4 polls · through Apr 19, 2026 · latest Alaska Survey Research
Tom Begich
VoteHub48.2%
VoteHub
Polling average48.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg41.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average41.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 7.2 pt above our average
Bernadette Wilson
VoteHub36.3%
VoteHub
Polling average36.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Click Bishop
VoteHub22.0%
VoteHub
Polling average22.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Dave Bronson
VoteHub19.0%
VoteHub
Polling average19.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 4 polls (through Apr 19, 2026): Tom Begich 48.2%, Bernadette Wilson 36.3%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22 | Alaska Survey Research+3 | 1,923 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +5.3decoupled | 41 · 19 |
| Apr 18 | Alaska Survey Research+2 | 1,923 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +5.3decoupled | 41 · 19 |
| Feb 10 | Lake Research Partners+2For · Internal D-aligned | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 38 · 8 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDTom Begich0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
Likely R3
Likely R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.17
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.50 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.17
Week-over-weekshift −0.50 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 17%
Neutral 83%
17% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets17%
Neutral83%
R-leaning outlets0%
17% of outlets classified by editorial lean
T
Tom Begich touts ‘sh*t-poster’ account claiming blue wave in Alaska governor’s race
A
Opinion: What Alaska’s governor candidates say about AI — and why it matters
T
Major national endorsement from conservative PAC founder boosts candidacy of Bernadette Wilson for governor
A
Sullivan holds slim lead over Peltola in NYT Alaska Senate poll
S
New York Times/Siena Polls in Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio
T
Alaska Outdoor Council endorses Adam Crum; Bronson campaign goes on attack, fakes poll date
A
Dave Bronson wins Alaska Outdoor Council membership poll, but board endorses Crum for governor
N
Alaska U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Alaska At-Large Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
A
Alaska legislative attorney says U.S. Senate candidate’s removal could violate Constitution
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements18 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks