Primary · August 18, 2026
Alaska Governor primary
Field of 4 candidates running on a single ballot (jungle / nonpartisan format). Top finishers advance to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 6d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
75
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (22.7pp).
Forecast CI width76
22.7pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution76 / 100
Measured22.7pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 6 polls + fundamentals1Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
2Tom BegichThomas Scott Begich is an American politician and a former Democratic member of the Alaska Senate. He represented District J from 2017 to 20…
3Bernadette WilsonChallenger
4Dave BronsonDavid Bronson is an American politician, pilot, and retired National Guard officer. A Republican, he was the 37th mayor of Anchorage, Alaska…
↑ top 4 advance to November · ↓ eliminated
5Mary Peltola
6Click BishopClark Calvin "Click" Bishop is an American politician. A member of the Republican Party, he served in the Alaska Senate from 2013 to 2025. B…
7Bill Walker
8Matt Claman
9Nancy Dahlstrom
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
odds to win the seat in November · updated 11h agoNo platform lists a primary-winner contract for this race, so these are each candidate's market odds of winning the general election — winning the nomination is a prerequisite, which is why traders separate the field this way.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Begich | Wilson | Bishop | Bronson | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 26 | Public Policy Polling | 529 · LV | 16 | 12 | 10 | 13 | +3 |
| May 16, 26 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,401 · LV | 21 | 16 | 10 | 11 | +5 |
| Apr 29, 26 | Dittman Research | 451 · LV | 21 | 6 | 6 | 7 | +14 |
| Mar 21, 26 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,061 · LV | 19 | 14 | — | 10 | +5 |
| Feb 10, 26 | Lake Research Partners | 600 · LV | 22 | 14 | 6 | 8 | +8 |
| Jul 26, 25 | Data for Progress | 584 · LV | 8 | 13 | 8 | — | +5 |
Endorsements · primary · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetBernadette Wilson · 2
RBernadette Wilson2 endorsers
Most notable · Craig Campbell · former lieutenant governor of Alaska (2009–2010)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Craig Campbell · former lieutenant governor of Alaska (2009–2010)
Other1
Other · 1
- Byron Donalds · FL-19 (2021–present)
DTom Begich0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RClick Bishop0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDave Bronson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.17
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.50 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.17
Week-over-weekshift −0.50 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 17%
Neutral 83%
17% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets17%
Neutral83%
R-leaning outlets0%
17% of outlets classified by editorial lean
T
Tom Begich touts ‘sh*t-poster’ account claiming blue wave in Alaska governor’s race
A
Opinion: What Alaska’s governor candidates say about AI — and why it matters
T
Major national endorsement from conservative PAC founder boosts candidacy of Bernadette Wilson for governor
A
Sullivan holds slim lead over Peltola in NYT Alaska Senate poll
S
New York Times/Siena Polls in Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio
T
Alaska Outdoor Council endorses Adam Crum; Bronson campaign goes on attack, fakes poll date
A
Dave Bronson wins Alaska Outdoor Council membership poll, but board endorses Crum for governor
N
Alaska U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Alaska At-Large Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
A
Alaska legislative attorney says U.S. Senate candidate’s removal could violate Constitution
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements18 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks