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Races · house · 2026 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary·primary
house · open seat

Audrey Denney vs James Gallagher

← Arizona houseCalifornia house →
Tilt RR +1.1 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsLast poll 129d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
46% Denney (D)
54% Gallagher (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +1.1 · 80% CI R+17.2 → D+15.0 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 93¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 54% R

Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+12.0, sourced from polls).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+1.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.2 (10th pctile) to D+15.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 54% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +1.1
80% CI: R +17.2 → D +15.0 · win prob 46%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +28.9
80% CI R +30.2 → R +19.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +3.0
80% CI R +1.3 → D +7.3
CV MAE 3.32
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.0
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat?”
93¢5¢-1¢—+0

Endorsements · 27 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
10Denney · 37%
Gallagher · 63%17
RJames Gallagher17 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials15
Federal 15State 0Local 0
Organizations2
DAudrey Denney10 endorsers
Most notable · 314 Action
Organizations9
Other1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-29
Audrey DenneyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$895.8K
Disburse
$881.8K
Cash on hand
$14.0K
Debts
$14.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
James GallagherOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$567.7K
Cash on hand
$479.6K
Debts
$123.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.1K
D side
$1.1K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Rebellion PAC
For / against split
For Denney $1.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
Rebellion PACD$1.1K100%for Audrey Denney

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe D
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 2, 2026Tilt Rmodel
Jun 18, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Jun 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
Jun 14, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
+ 1 earlier change
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-29
Endorsements57 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks