Primary · June 2, 2026
California house primary
Field of 5 candidates running on a single ballot (jungle / nonpartisan format). Top finishers advance to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
95
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (26.7pp).
Forecast CI width89
26.7pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution89 / 100
Measured26.7pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Mike McGuireMike McGuire is an American politician who has been a member of the California State Senate representing the 2nd district since 2014. A Demo…
2James GallagherJames Matthew Gallagher is an American politician who is a member of the United States House of Representatives from California's 1st congre…
↑ top 2 advance to November · ↓ eliminated
3Audrey DenneyThe 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in California were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the 53 U.S. representatives …
4Angelita VallesAngelita Valles ( Republican Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 2nd Congressional District . She lost in t…
5Kyle WilsonKyle Wilson may refer to:Kyle Wilson (cornerback), American football cornerback Kyle Wilson (cricketer), South African cricketer Kyle Wilson…
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Denney | Gallagher | McGuire | Valles | Wilson | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27 | David Binder Research | 700 · LV | 18 | 30 | 33 | 4 | 2 | +3 |
Endorsements · primary · 57 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetMike McGuire · 30James Gallagher · 17Audrey Denney · 10
DMike McGuire30 endorsers
Most notable · Cecilia Aguiar-Curry · majority leader of the California Assembly (2023–present) from AD-04 (2016–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 10State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 14
- Cecilia Aguiar-Curry · majority leader of the California Assembly (2023–present) from AD-04 (2016–present)
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Robert Rivas · speaker of the California Assembly (2023–present) from AD-29 (2018–present)
- Gavin Newsom · governor of California (2019–present)
- Rob Bonta · attorney general of California (2021–present)
- Jared Huffman · CA-02 (2013–present)
- Mike Thompson · CA-04 (1999–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Robert Garcia · CA-42 (2023–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1995–present)
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Alex Padilla · California (2021–present)
- Douglas H. Bosco · former CA-01 (1983–1991)
- Lynn Woolsey · former CA-06 (1993–2013)
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- California Democratic Party
- California Environmental Voters
- California Faculty Association
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- Carpenters · rpenters
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- J Street PAC
- National Nurses United
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- SEIU · California
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West
Newspapers5
Newspapers · 5
- Chico Enterprise-Record
- Daily News
- Oroville Mercury-Register
- The Press Democrat
- The Sacramento Bee
RJames Gallagher17 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials15
Federal 15State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 15
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Jay Obernolte · CA-23 (2021–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-06 (2007–present)
- Ken Calvert · CA-41 (1993–present)
- Kevin Kiley · CA-06 (2023–present)
- Tom McClintock · CA-05 (2009–present)
- Vince Fong · CA-20 (2025–present)
- Young Kim · CA-40 (2021–present)
- Darrell Issa · CA-40 (2001-2019, 2021–present)
- David Valadao · CA-22 (2013-2019, 2021–present)
- Doug Ose · former CA-03 (1999–2005)
- Wally Herger · former CA-02 (1987–2013)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- California Republican Party
- Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
DAudrey Denney10 endorsers
Most notable · 314 Action
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- 314 Action
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Our Revolution
- Peace Action
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Progressive Victory
- Track AIPAC
Other1
Other · 1
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013-2017, 2023–present)
RAngelita Valles0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DKyle Wilson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-05-29James Gallagher
Raised
$1.05M
Cash on hand
$480K
Top industries
No industry data.
Audrey Denney
Raised
$896K
Cash on hand
$14K
Top industries
No industry data.
Doug Lamalfa
Raised
$770K
Cash on hand
$821K
Top industries
No industry data.
James Salegui
Raised
$9K
Cash on hand
$5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Kyle Wilson
Raised
$5K
Cash on hand
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-29
Endorsements57 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks