Democratic primary · June 2, 2026
California house Democratic primary
Field of 3 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
86
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.8pp).
Forecast CI width73
21.8pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured21.8pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Mike McGuireMike McGuire is an American politician who has been a member of the California State Senate representing the 2nd district since 2014. A Demo…
2Audrey DenneyThe 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in California were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the 53 U.S. representatives …
3Kyle WilsonKyle Wilson may refer to:Kyle Wilson (cornerback), American football cornerback Kyle Wilson (cricketer), South African cricketer Kyle Wilson…
All polls · 0 results
Democratic primary pollsNo polls have been published for this primary yet. When pollsters start covering the race, individual polls will be listed here with sample size, lean, and trust signals.
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 40 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetMike McGuire · 30Audrey Denney · 10
DMike McGuire30 endorsers
Most notable · Cecilia Aguiar-Curry · majority leader of the California Assembly (2023–present) from AD-04 (2016–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 10State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 14
- Cecilia Aguiar-Curry · majority leader of the California Assembly (2023–present) from AD-04 (2016–present)
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Robert Rivas · speaker of the California Assembly (2023–present) from AD-29 (2018–present)
- Gavin Newsom · governor of California (2019–present)
- Rob Bonta · attorney general of California (2021–present)
- Jared Huffman · CA-02 (2013–present)
- Mike Thompson · CA-04 (1999–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Robert Garcia · CA-42 (2023–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1995–present)
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Alex Padilla · California (2021–present)
- Douglas H. Bosco · former CA-01 (1983–1991)
- Lynn Woolsey · former CA-06 (1993–2013)
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- California Democratic Party
- California Environmental Voters
- California Faculty Association
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- Carpenters · rpenters
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- J Street PAC
- National Nurses United
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- SEIU · California
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West
Newspapers5
Newspapers · 5
- Chico Enterprise-Record
- Daily News
- Oroville Mercury-Register
- The Press Democrat
- The Sacramento Bee
DAudrey Denney10 endorsers
Most notable · 314 Action
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- 314 Action
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Our Revolution
- Peace Action
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Progressive Victory
- Track AIPAC
Other1
Other · 1
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013-2017, 2023–present)
DKyle Wilson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-05-29Audrey Denney
Raised
$896K
Cash on hand
$14K
Top industries
No industry data.
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-29
Endorsements57 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks