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Races · house · 2026 · California · general · Republican primary
James Gallagher 99% to win the Republican nominationupdated 11h ago · primary-struct-v1
James Gallagher · 100%Angelita Valles · 0%
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified
Showing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.4pp).
Forecast CI width65
19.4pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution65 / 100
Measured19.4pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals
1James GallagherJames Matthew Gallagher is an American politician who is a member of the United States House of Representatives from California's 1st congre…31.7% 22–41100% win
2Angelita VallesAngelita Valles ( Republican Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 2nd Congressional District . She lost in t…2.3% 0–12<1% win
All polls · 0 results
Republican primary polls
No polls have been published for this primary yet. When pollsters start covering the race, individual polls will be listed here with sample size, lean, and trust signals.
Endorsements · Republican primary · 17 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
17
James Gallagher · 17
RJames Gallagher17 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials15
Federal 15State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 15
Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
Jay Obernolte · CA-23 (2021–present)
Jim Jordan · OH-06 (2007–present)
Ken Calvert · CA-41 (1993–present)
Kevin Kiley · CA-06 (2023–present)
Tom McClintock · CA-05 (2009–present)
Vince Fong · CA-20 (2025–present)
Young Kim · CA-40 (2021–present)
Darrell Issa · CA-40 (2001-2019, 2021–present)
David Valadao · CA-22 (2013-2019, 2021–present)
Doug Ose · former CA-03 (1999–2005)
Wally Herger · former CA-02 (1987–2013)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
California Republican Party
Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
RAngelita Valles0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-05-29
No FEC committee filings yet for the Republican primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.