Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat
Janelle Stelson vs Scott Perry
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 18d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 60% D · market gap 14pp
Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+6.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.1 (10th pctile) to D+19.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 60% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 60%, market says 73% — 13pp gap.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement67
13.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution67 / 100
Measured13.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.0
80% CI: R +13.1 → D +19.1 · win prob 60%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +9.7
80% CI R +13.6 → R +8.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +3.7
80% CI D +0.7 → D +6.7
CV MAE 2.34
consensusMarket-implied
D +7.4
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 79¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 28 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 79% · polls 51%.
Cross-platform price · history
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Apr 23, 2026 · latest Normington Petts & Associates
Janelle Stetson
VoteHub51.0%
VoteHub
Polling average51.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Scott Perry
VoteHub45.0%
VoteHub
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg45.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Apr 23, 2026): Janelle Stetson 51.0%, Scott Perry 45.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 26 | Normington Petts+1For · Internal D-aligned | 400 · RV | D-LEAN | — | — | 51 · 45 |
| Nov 18, 25 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 549 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 48 · 44 |
| Jul 10, 25 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 559 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 46 · 43 |
Endorsements · 27 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet23
4
Endorsements tracked
Janelle Stelson23 · 85%
Scott Perry4 · 15%
Total27
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJanelle Stelson23 endorsers
Most notable · Austin Davis · lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
Elected officials13
Federal 6State 6Local 1
Elected officials · 13
- Austin Davis · lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
- Josh Shapiro · governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
- Patty Kim · state senator from the 15th district (2025–present)
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Barbara Comstock · former VA-10 (2015–2019) (Republican)
- Carol Hill-Evans · state representative from the 95th district (2017–present)
- Cumberland County · of the Cumberland County Democratic Committee
- Dave Madsen · state representative from the 104th district (2023–present)
- Denver Riggleman · former VA-05 (2019–2021) (Independent)
- Gabby Giffords · former AZ-08 (2007–2012)
- Nate Davidson · state representative from the 103rd district (2024–present)
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Giffords
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters
- NewDem Action Fund
- Pennsylvania Conference of Teamsters
- WelcomePAC
RScott Perry4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House of Representatives (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Club for Growth · PAC
- Turning Point Action
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-02Scott PerryH2PA04135 ↗
Receipts
$4.4M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$2.3M
Debts
$157.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Janelle StelsonH4PA10104 ↗
Receipts
$4.7M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$3.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$213.6K
D side
$103.1K · 48%
R side
$110.5K · 52%
Top spender
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION other · boosts R
| R | $45.0K | 21% | for Scott Perry |
| LGBTQ CONNECTION PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $33.4K | 16% | against Scott Perry |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $28.3K | 13% | for Scott Perry |
| Solidarity Victory PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $26.9K | 13% | for Janelle Stelson |
| WelcomePAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $21.3K | 10% | against Scott Perry |
| Club for Growth PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $17.3K | 8% | for Scott Perry |
| KNOCK FOR DEMOCRACY, INC. other · boosts D
| D | $11.4K | 5% | for Janelle Stelson |
| CASA IN ACTION PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $3.0K | 1% | against Janelle Stelson |
| DMFI PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $381.82 | 0% | for Janelle Stelson |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements29 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks